广期所对碳酸锂限仓，近期亢奋情绪或降温

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short and medium term, the actual supply and demand of lithium carbonate are favorable, and inventory depletion is accelerating. However, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has started to limit positions on lithium carbonate, which may cool down the recent exuberant sentiment. For polysilicon, the rumors of state reserve purchases have been refuted, but there are still expectations for supply - side contraction policies, and the price has support at the bottom. In the long term, the supply - side contraction expectation of silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in the rising stage, but the demand expectation is also increasing, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing [1]. - The sentiment of industrial silicon has declined, and the supply and demand are still weak, with the price fluctuating. The policy expectation of polysilicon is volatile, and the price is in a wide - range shock. The trading sentiment of lithium carbonate has cooled down, and attention should be paid to the high - level fluctuations of lithium prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - Information Analysis: As of November 2025, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated slightly. The domestic inventory decreased by 0.1% month - on - month to 452,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.8% week - on - week. In October 2025, the monthly output increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 452,000 tons, but decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. The export volume in October decreased by 35.8% month - on - month and 30.8% year - on - year. The organic silicon industry may enter a production - reduction and price - support stage [6]. - Main Logic: The anti - involution in the organic silicon industry has strengthened the market's expectation of anti - involution in surplus varieties, but the production reduction in the organic silicon industry is negative for the demand of industrial silicon. From the fundamental perspective, the supply in the southwest decreased due to the dry season, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon may decline. The inventory is still at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are being depleted [6]. - Outlook: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the organic silicon start - up rate, and the over - supply pressure of industrial silicon still exists [6]. Polysilicon - Information Analysis: The成交 price of N - type re - feedstock polysilicon was stable, and the number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 20. The export and import volumes from January to September 2025 decreased year - on - year. The photovoltaic installation growth rate decreased from June to September [6][9]. - Main Logic: In terms of supply, the production of polysilicon will decrease in the dry season, and there are still expectations for anti - involution policies. In terms of demand, the photovoltaic installation growth rate decreased in the second half of the year, and the demand for polysilicon may weaken in November. Overall, the supply - demand situation still has pressure, and the price is expected to remain in a wide - range shock [7][9]. - Outlook: The anti - involution policy has a significant boost to the polysilicon price, but the inventory pressure is still large. The price of polysilicon is expected to show a wide - range shock [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Information Analysis: On November 20, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 0.32%, and the total position decreased by 15,651 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,400 yuan/ton. In October, the import volume of lithium carbonate increased by 22% month - on - month and 3% year - on - year [10][11]. - Main Logic: The current supply and demand are both strong, and inventory depletion is expected to continue from November to December. The supply is expected to remain strong, but there is a shortage of ore. The demand is good, and speculative demand may push up the price. The social inventory is depleting, and the warehouse receipts have stabilized. In the short term, the resumption of production of Jiaxiawo is the key factor affecting the balance sheet. In the long term, a bullish view is recommended [12]. - Outlook: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 2. Market Monitoring Industrial Silicon No specific monitoring content provided. Polysilicon No specific monitoring content provided. Lithium Carbonate No specific monitoring content provided. 3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 20, 2025: the commodity index was 2,234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index was 2,535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial products index was 2,200.99, down 0.68%. The new energy commodity index was 452.94, with a daily decline of 2.17%, a 5 - day increase of 5.19%, a 1 - month increase of 10.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.83% [54][56].