商品期货早班车-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold Market: On Thursday, precious metals fluctuated, with London gold constrained below $4,100. The US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed, and Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts. Domestic gold ETFs continued to see inflows. The recommended trading strategy is to buy at the lower support level [2]. - Silver Market: The tight supply situation is gradually easing. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - Copper: The copper price fluctuated downward. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the market anticipates a tight supply - demand situation for electrolytic copper next year. With unclear macro - drivers, the recommended strategy is to wait and see [3]. - Aluminum: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. The smelters are operating at high loads, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [3]. - Alumina: The price of the alumina main contract decreased slightly. Some alumina plants are undergoing early maintenance or reducing production. The supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to change, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][4]. - Zinc: The price of the Shanghai zinc contract decreased slightly. Supply is differentiated between domestic and overseas markets, and demand is weak. The recommended strategy is to short at high prices [4]. - Lead: The price of the Shanghai lead contract decreased slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is in short supply, and demand is affected by high prices. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Industrial Silicon: The price of the main contract decreased significantly. Supply decreased, and demand is supported by the polysilicon industry. With the planned production cut, the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and be cautious about short - selling [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices during the callback [4]. - Polysilicon: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply decreased slightly, and downstream production decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [5]. Black Industry - Rebar: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply - demand situation of steel is weak, with significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract, and the reference range for RB01 is 3040 - 3090 [6]. - Iron Ore: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply - demand situation is weakening marginally. It is recommended to hold short positions in the iron ore 2605 contract, and the reference range for I01 is 760 - 795 [6]. - Coking Coal: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply - demand situation is weakening, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the coking coal 2605 contract, and the reference range for JM01 is 1100 - 1140 [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The short - term CBOT soybean price is weak. The global supply - demand situation is gradually improving. The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic price may weaken in the short term [7]. - Corn: The corn futures price is running weakly. The short - term supply is tight, but the long - term price is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [7]. - Edible Oils: The Malaysian palm oil price decreased. The near - term supply is high, and the long - term supply is expected to decrease seasonally. The P contract is in a contango structure, and it is difficult to determine the unilateral price [7]. - Sugar: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract decreased slightly. Internationally, the Indian export quota affects the price, and the long - term global production is expected to increase. Domestically, the price is expected to follow the international trend. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - Cotton: The international cotton price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic cotton price fluctuates narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see, with a range - trading strategy between 13400 - 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - Eggs: The egg futures price rebounded, and the spot price decreased. The supply pressure decreased, and the demand weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8]. - Hogs: The hog futures price is running weakly, and the spot price increased in most areas. The supply is still abundant, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The main contract fluctuated slightly. The supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, and the demand has weakened. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a bear - spread [9]. - PTA: The PX supply is balanced and loose, and the PTA is in inventory accumulation. It is recommended to take profits on PX long positions and short the PTA processing margin in the far - month contracts [9]. - PP: The main contract decreased slightly. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a bear - spread [9]. - MEG: The supply may decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. The demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices above the 01 contract [10]. - Crude Oil: The oil price weakened. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it can be shorted at high prices if the Russian oil production cut is less than 500,000 barrels per day [10]. - Styrene: The main contract rebounded slightly. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the long - term situation is still weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window [10].