Group 1: Report Information - Date: November 21, 2025 [3] - Title: Nonferrous Metals Daily Report [1] Group 2: Copper Market Information - LME copper 3M contract closed down 1.08% at $10,686/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,920 yuan/ton [3] - LME copper inventory increased by 50 to 157,925 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined [3] - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory slightly increased, bonded area inventory slightly decreased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 55,000 tons [3] - Shanghai spot premium over futures declined to 80 yuan/ton, and bargain - hunting buying was fair [3] - Guangdong inventory decreased, and the spot premium over futures was 55 yuan/ton [3] - Domestic copper spot import loss was about 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread widened to 2,940 yuan/ton [3] Strategy View - After the US employment data release, the Fed's probability of a rate cut remained low, and the weakening US stocks pressured market sentiment [4] - Copper raw material supply remained tight, and the pressure of inventory accumulation eased marginally, so copper price support was still strong [4] - The operating range reference for SHFE copper main contract: 85,200 - 87,000 yuan/ton; for LME copper 3M: 10,600 - 10,820 dollars/ton [4] Group 3: Aluminum Market Information - LME aluminum closed down 0.28% at $2,806/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,550 yuan/ton [6] - SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest decreased by 1.4 to 654,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts remained flat at 69,000 tons [6] - Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 25,000 tons compared to Monday, and remained flat compared to last Thursday [6] - Aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 8,500 tons compared to Monday and 1,500 tons compared to last Thursday [6] - Aluminum bar processing fees declined, and the market traded on demand [6] - East China electrolytic aluminum spot was at a 10 - yuan discount to futures, and trading was warm [6] - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 544,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rebounded [6] Strategy View - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased marginally, and overseas aluminum inventory remained low, so aluminum price support was strong [7] - Although there were still headwinds in short - term market risk appetite, if domestic inventory could be effectively reduced, aluminum prices were expected to strengthen further after consolidation [7] - The operating range reference for SHFE aluminum main contract: 21,480 - 21,650 yuan/ton; for LME aluminum 3M: 2,780 - 2,830 dollars/ton [7] Group 4: Lead Market Information - On Thursday, SHFE lead index closed down 0.17% at 17,218 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 82,800 lots in unilateral trading [8] - As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME lead 3S fell 11 to $2,015/ton compared to the previous day, with a total open interest of 161,100 lots [8] - SMM 1 lead ingot average price was 17,125 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton [8] - SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,600 tons, and the domestic primary basis was - 110 yuan/ton [8] - LME lead ingot inventory was 264,500 tons, and LME lead ingot cancellation warrants were 87,200 tons [8] - The ex - exchange cash - 3S contract basis was - 27.39 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 78.3 dollars/ton [8] - The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons [8] Strategy View - Lead ore inventory increased slightly, but lead concentrate TC continued to decline, and domestic lead raw materials were still in short supply [9] - Primary and secondary smelting profits were good, primary smelting operations remained at a high level, and secondary smelting operations continued to rise [9] - Downstream battery enterprises' operations improved marginally, and domestic lead ingot social inventory increased marginally [9] - Last week, lead prices tried to break through the 17,800 - yuan level again, but with the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the sentiment in precious metals and nonferrous metals ebbed [9] - The net long position of the top 20 in SHFE lead shifted from long to short, and the SHFE lead index reduced its open interest by 40,000 lots from the high point, returning to the oscillation range [9] - Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [9] Group 5: Zinc Market Information - On Thursday, SHFE zinc index closed down 0.21% at 22,390 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 199,800 lots in unilateral trading [10] - As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME zinc 3S rose 3.5 to $2,990/ton compared to the previous day, with a total open interest of 218,400 lots [10] - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price was 22,430 yuan/ton, Shanghai basis was 30 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis was - 10 yuan/ton, and Guangdong basis was - 40 yuan/ton [10] - SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 73,700 tons, and the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 30 yuan/ton [10] - LME zinc ingot inventory was 45,100 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancellation warrants were 3,500 tons [10] - The ex - exchange cash - 3S contract basis was 152.14 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 35.58 dollars/ton [10] - The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 152,700 tons [10] Strategy View - Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, but zinc ore was still in short supply during the refineries' winter stockpiling period, and zinc concentrate TC continued to decline [11] - Zinc smelting profits were damaged, and zinc ingot supply decreased marginally [11] - Downstream operating rates remained stable, and the accumulation of domestic zinc ingot social inventory slowed down [11] - In the LME market, zinc ingot warrants increased slowly, and the LME zinc spread declined marginally [11] - With the Fed officials' hawkish remarks last Friday, the sentiment in precious metals and nonferrous metals ebbed, and the net long position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc declined rapidly [11] - Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [11] Group 6: Tin Market Information - On November 20, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 292,030 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous day [12] - Upstream Yunnan 40% tin concentrate was quoted at 279,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12] - After the seasonal maintenance of large smelters in Yunnan ended, the operating rates of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces rebounded and stabilized, but the overall operating level was still at a historical low [12] - Due to the slow actual resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, its tin ore exports were still far below the normal level, unable to effectively make up for the supply gap [12] - In September 2025, China's imported tin concentrate physical volume was 8,714 tons, a significant decline from the previous month [12] - Although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate was weak, the long - term demand expectations from emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI servers supported tin prices [12] - In October, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight improvement [12] Strategy View - In the short term, tin supply and demand were in a tight balance, and prices were expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation [13] - It is recommended to buy on dips [13] - The operating range reference for domestic main contract: 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton; for overseas LME tin: 36,000 - 38,000 dollars/ton [13] Group 7: Nickel Market Information - On Thursday, nickel prices rose and then fell. The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract at 15:00 was 115,380 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day [14] - In the spot market, the premium of various brands was stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [14] - The average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 4,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [14] - In the cost aspect, the overall trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair this week. The price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was 52.02 dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day [14] - The price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was 23 dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day [14] - The price of 1.5% grade nickel ore from the Philippines was 52.7 dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [14] - The price of domestic high - nickel pig iron continued to fall, with the ex - factory price at 895 yuan/nickel point, down 2 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [14] Strategy View - In the short term, the fundamental pressure on nickel remained significant, but considering that the current profit level of nickel pig iron was at an absolute low, the short - term decline space of nickel prices was expected to be limited [15] - It is necessary to guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in nickel ore prices [15] - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. If the nickel pig iron price stabilizes and the nickel price decline is sufficient, consider gradually establishing long positions lightly [15] - The short - term operating range reference for SHFE nickel main contract: 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton; for LME nickel 3M contract: 14,500 - 15,000 dollars/ton [15] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 99,011 yuan in the evening session, up 1.71% from the previous working day [17] - The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 98,500 - 100,000 yuan, with the average price up 1,700 yuan (+1.74%) from the previous working day [17] - The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 97,500 - 98,000 yuan, with the average price up 1.56% from the previous day [17] - The closing price of the LC2601 contract was 98,980 yuan, down 0.32% from the previous closing price [17] - The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 250 yuan [17] Strategy View - This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 2.7% week - on - week to 22,130 tons, with the increment mainly from lithium - spodumene extraction [18] - The weekly inventory reduction narrowed to 118,420 tons, down 2,052 tons (-1.7%) from last week [18] - All links in the industrial chain maintained high operating rates, and strong demand could not be falsified [18] - Continuous price increases may trigger potential disturbances such as supply release and a slowdown in demand growth [18] - Currently, the capital game is intense, and it is necessary to guard against the risk of large price fluctuations [18] - It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the position structure, the atmosphere in the equity market, and the production schedules of lithium - battery materials and cells [18] - The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2601 contract today: 96,500 - 102,800 yuan/ton [18] Group 9: Alumina Market Information - On November 20, 2025, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 0.33% to 2,755 yuan/ton, with the unilateral trading total open interest down 0.9 to 574,000 lots from the previous trading day [20] - In terms of the basis, the Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,775 yuan/ton, at a 70 - yuan premium to the 12 - contract [20] - Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australia FOB remained at 319 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 39 yuan/ton [20] - In terms of futures inventory, the futures warrants on Thursday were reported at 255,100 tons, down 0.06 to 255,100 tons from the previous trading day [20] - In the ore end, the Guinea CIF price remained at 71.5 dollars/ton, and the Australia CIF price remained at 68 dollars/ton [20] Strategy View - After the rainy season, overseas ore shipments are gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to oscillate downward [21] - The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues [21] - However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production - cut expectation is strengthened [21] - And the overall nonferrous sector is trending strongly, so the cost - performance of short - selling is not high [21] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [21] - The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601: 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton. It is necessary to focus on supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [21] Group 10: Stainless Steel Market Information - At 15:00 on Thursday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,285 yuan/ton, down 0.41% (-50) on the day, with the unilateral open interest up 11,517 to 263,300 lots from the previous trading day [23] - In the spot market, Foshan's Delong 304 cold - rolled coil was quoted at 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [23] - Wuxi's Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil was quoted at 12,650 yuan/ton, down 50 from the previous day [23] - Foshan's basis was 15 (+50), and Wuxi's basis was 165 (0) [23] - Foshan's Hongwang 201 was quoted at 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and Hongwang's annealed 430 was quoted at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [23] - In terms of raw materials, Shandong's high - nickel iron ex - factory price was quoted at 900 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous day [23] - Baoding's 304 scrap steel industrial material recycling price was quoted at 8,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [23] - The northern main - producing area of high - carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 8,000 yuan/50 - base ton, unchanged from the previous day [23] - The futures inventory was 70,365 tons, down 1,726 from the previous day [23] - According to Steel Union data, the social inventory increased to 1.0717 million tons, up 0.11% month - on - month, of which the 300 - series inventory was 65
五矿期货早报 | 有色金属：有色金属日报 2025-11-21-20251121
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-21 01:13