贵属策略报：就业数据分化，12?降息存疑

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Thursday's precious metal prices fluctuated. After significant weakening in July and August, the number of new non - farm jobs in September rebounded more than expected, but the unemployment rate rose simultaneously. The Fed's data - dependent style further reduces the probability of a December interest rate cut, but long - term interest rate cut expectations remain optimistic due to the negative impact of the government shutdown [1][3] - In the long term, the upward trend of precious metals remains. The over - issuance of debt and de - globalization, as the core drivers of the decline in the US dollar's credit, have not reversed. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from the spill - over effect. In 2026, the global economy may shift from a soft landing to a mild recovery, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - In September, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000, far exceeding the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, the highest since 2021. The average hourly wage increased by 3.8% year - on - year. These data strengthen the position of hawkish members of the FOMC [2] - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 220,000, lower than the expected 230,000. The four - week average was 224,250. The number of continued jobless claims from November 8 was 1,974,000, slightly higher than the expected 1,960,000 [2] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in November was - 1.7, lower than the expected 2. The employment index was 6, and the price acquisition index was 17.7 [2] 3.2 Price Logic - The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains. Gold is a hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from spill - over effects. In 2026, the global economic shift is favorable for silver's elasticity [3] - The expected price range for spot London gold is [3800, 4200] US dollars per ounce, and for spot London silver is [46, 53] US dollars per ounce [3] 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 20, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index was 2535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial products index was 2200.99, down 0.68% [42] - The precious metals index on November 20, 2025 was 3328.49, with a daily decline of 0.57%, a 5 - day decline of 2.27%, a 1 - month increase of 0.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 50.45% [44]