能源化策略日报：俄罗斯成品油出?创俄乌冲突以来最低，中国化?出?整体表现较好-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is expected to continue oscillating, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics having a slightly stronger pattern. The geopolitical premium of crude oil is expected to keep fluctuating, and the supply pressure persists. [3][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - Market news: Iran has raised its combat readiness level; a Venezuelan crude oil upgrading unit has stopped operating; Singapore's medium and light distillate inventories have reached multi - week highs. [6] - Main logic: After the release of non - farm data, the overseas risk appetite weakened. The geopolitical concerns have diminished, but the risks related to Russia and Venezuela are still hard to disprove, causing the geopolitical premium to swing. The alleviation of refined oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads provide phased support to oil prices. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production due to the supply surplus, but the current oversupply situation remains unchanged, so the price will oscillate. [7] 3.2 Performance and Outlook of Each Variety - Asphalt: On November 20, 2025, the main asphalt futures closed at 3058 yuan/ton. The price oscillated widely. OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, and the geopolitical situation has eased, causing the asphalt price to first fall below 3000 yuan/ton and then rise. The high absolute price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts. [8][9] - High - sulfur fuel oil: On November 20, 2025, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2517 yuan/ton. The price was driven down by the expectation of a Russia - Ukraine framework agreement. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the crack spread is continuously weak. Geopolitical upgrades will have a short - term impact on prices, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine situation. [8] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: On November 20, 2025, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3139 yuan/ton. It followed the sharp decline of diesel. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil. [10] - PX: On November 20, the CFR China Taiwan price was 831(+4) dollars/ton. The price was affected by frequent speculation in oil blending, and its profitability was maintained under the support of polyester demand. In the short term, it will be significantly affected by market sentiment and funds, and the price is expected to oscillate. [11] - PTA: On November 20, the spot price was 4633(-7) yuan/ton. The fundamentals improved marginally due to longer - than - expected device maintenance and the support of downstream polyester demand. The price will oscillate with costs, and the TA01 - 05 reverse spread position can be temporarily withdrawn for observation. [11] - Pure benzene: On November 20, the 2603 contract closed at 5596 yuan, up 1.14%. The price rebounded after a decline, driven by US aromatic oil blending. The game between expectations and reality will repeatedly dominate the market, leading to an oscillating and chaotic market. [11][12] - Styrene: On November 20, the East China spot price was 6580(+70) yuan/ton. The price rebounded and then oscillated. The driving force for going long is difficult to confirm, and the short - selling space is limited. The price will be affected by oil - blending news and the pressure on pure benzene. [13] - Ethylene glycol (MEG): On November 20, the main contract 2601 closed at 3822 yuan, down 2.05%. The price is weakly operating due to the medium - term inventory accumulation pressure. The rebound height is limited, and it will maintain a low - level oscillating and weak operation. [15][17] - Polyester staple fiber: On November 20, the Zhejiang market spot price rose 15 yuan to 6310 yuan/ton. The price passively followed the upstream. The export demand is strong, and the price will oscillate with the upstream, with the processing fee expected to be compressed. [18][19] - Polyester bottle chips: On November 20, the main contract closed at 5682 yuan/ton (-64 yuan/ton). The supply - demand drive is limited, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger downward support. [20] - Methanol: On November 20, the low - end spot price in Taicang was 1985 yuan/ton. The price oscillated at a low level due to high inventory and insignificant overseas disturbances. In the short term, it will have a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for overseas disturbance information. [22] - Urea: On November 20, the high - end and low - end prices in the Shandong market were 1650(+20) yuan/ton and 1630(+10) yuan/ton respectively. The price oscillated in a narrow range. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is supported. The market sentiment is uncertain, and the price may reverse its upward trend. [22] - Plastic (LLDPE): On November 20, the spot mainstream price was 6850 yuan/ton. The price oscillated. The support from its own fundamentals is limited, and the profit support is also limited. It will oscillate in the short term. [23][24] - PP: On November 20, the East China PP拉丝 mainstream transaction price was 6430(-20) yuan/ton. The price oscillated. The self - fundamental support is limited, and attention should be paid to the changes in device maintenance. It will oscillate in the short term. [24][25] - PL: On November 20, the low - end market price in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton. The price oscillated. The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It will oscillate in the short term. [26] - PVC: On November 20, the East China calcium carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4500(-30) yuan/ton. The price may be anchored to production cuts due to high inventory. The fundamentals are pessimistic, and the market will be cautiously weak, with attention paid to marginal device dynamics. [27] - Caustic soda: On November 20, the Shandong 32% caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2438 yuan/ton. The price oscillated with weak supply - demand and low valuation. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost, and the price will have a wide - range oscillation. [28] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - Inter - period spread: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, etc., including the latest values and changes. [33] - Basis and warehouse receipts: The report shows the basis, basis changes, and warehouse receipt quantities of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [34] - Inter - variety spread: The report presents the inter - variety spreads of combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., along with their changes. [35] 3.4 Index Performance - Comprehensive index: The commodity index was 2234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index was 2535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial product index was 2200.99, down 0.68%. [276] - Energy index: On November 20, 2025, the energy index was 1140.78, with a daily decline of 1.49%, a 5 - day decline of 0.74%, a 1 - month decline of 1.34%, and a year - to - date decline of 7.10%. [278]