五矿期货农产品早报-20251121

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but the de - stocking season provides some support, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][4]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the near term due to factors such as weak exports and high inventory. However, if Indonesian production decreases, the situation may reverse, and the strategy is to view it as volatile and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [6][9]. - Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded due to strengthened import controls on syrup and premixed powder, but the external market is weak. With expected increases in production in the 2025/26 season, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [12][13]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are negative factors such as weak downstream demand and high domestic production, some negative news has been digested [16][17]. - Egg prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with near - term contracts focusing on premium/discount and far - term contracts reflecting de - capacity expectations. In the medium term, as demand weakens, it is advisable to wait for price rallies to short [18][19]. - Hog prices are expected to be bearish before the Spring Festival due to oversupply. The current strategy is to first use reverse spreads and then wait for price rallies to short [21][22]. 3. Summary by Directory Protein Meal - Market Information: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans declined due to concerns about US soybean demand. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable, and the cost of imported soybeans decreased. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3492 million tons, up from 2.0776 million tons last week. Last week, soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans has reached 71%. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons, while the US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were also lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory [2]. - Strategy View: The bottom of soybean import costs may have appeared, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and crushing margins are under pressure. As the de - stocking season begins, there is some support, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [4]. Oils - Market Information: From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased compared to the same period last month, and the production situation was mixed. The National Grain and Oil Information Center expects palm oil prices to be volatile and weak in the near term. On Thursday, domestic oil prices declined. Domestic spot basis prices were stable [6]. - Strategy View: The high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed prices, but the recent improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support. Palm oil may reverse the current situation of high inventory in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it as volatile and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [9]. Sugar - Market Information: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly volatile. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends. The International Sugar Organization predicts a 1.63 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season. In October 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year. The production of Indian sugar mills has increased significantly compared to the same period last year [11][12]. - Strategy View: The strengthening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is weak. With expected increases in production in the new season, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [13]. Cotton - Market Information: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly volatile. In October 2025, China's cotton imports decreased year - on - year. The USDA monthly report showed an increase in global cotton production in the 2025/26 season. As of November 14, the spinning mill operating rate was low, and the national commercial cotton inventory increased year - on - year [15][16]. - Strategy View: Due to weak downstream demand and high domestic production, there is selling - hedging pressure. However, some negative news has been digested, and cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17]. Eggs - Market Information: On the previous day, national egg prices were stable or declined. The market supply was generally sufficient, and the terminal market digestion speed was partly stable and partly slowed down. It is expected that today's egg prices will be weakly stable with a few declines [18]. - Strategy View: The egg futures market has rebounded in advance, but the spot price increase has not met expectations, resulting in an enlarged premium. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the medium term, it is advisable to wait for price rallies to short [19]. Hogs - Market Information: On the previous day, domestic hog prices mainly increased, with some areas stable or slightly decreased. The market supply was normal, but demand was limited, and slaughter enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was not high. It is expected that today's hog prices may be stable or decreased [21]. - Strategy View: The current hog price rebound is driven by frozen product storage and second - fattening. The subsequent supply will lead to a bearish pattern before the Spring Festival. The current strategy is to first use reverse spreads and then wait for price rallies to short [22].