天然橡胶：维持区间震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound and high - elasticity oscillation, with no clear trend in the short term, and the spread - widening strategy of RU - NR has basically ended [1][2][15]. - The sentiment in the oil market weakened due to the fluctuating expectations of the US biodiesel policy, and the market will face a game of multiple long and short factors in the future, with all types of oils expected to oscillate [7]. - In the protein meal market, the US soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly, and the domestic continuous meal is also expected to oscillate strongly, influenced by factors such as South American weather and Chinese procurement [8]. - The corn and starch market will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the game between selling pressure after freezing and inventory building [8][9]. - The pig market has an abundant supply of pigs, with prices running weakly in the short term and a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern in the long term [11]. - The synthetic rubber market has a stable atmosphere and the disk continues to oscillate. Before the butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to short at high prices [16][17]. - The cotton price has limited upward and downward space, with a short - term callback risk and a long - term tendency to oscillate strongly [17]. - The sugar price is under increasing supply pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium and long term [18]. - The pulp market is mainly driven by funds, with the futures market showing a wide - range oscillation [19]. - The double - gum paper market is driven by limited tender support and will oscillate [20]. - The log market has a low valuation and will fluctuate at a low level [22][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils - View: The sentiment in the oil market weakened due to the fluctuating expectations of the US biodiesel policy. - Logic: The US biodiesel policy expectations are fluctuating, the macro - environment is complex, and the industrial situation shows that the US soybean harvest is nearing completion, the Brazilian and Argentine soybean plantings are progressing, and the domestic and international supply and demand situations vary. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate [7]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - View: In the South American weather market, US soybeans are stronger than the continuous meal. - Logic: Globally, the South American soybean planting is affected by La Nina, the US soybean planting area is expected to expand, and the export is under pressure. Domestically, the soybean import profit is deteriorating, and the supply pressure is increasing. - Outlook: US soybeans and continuous meal will oscillate strongly [8]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - View: The oscillation market continues, and attention should be paid to the game between selling pressure after freezing and inventory building. - Logic: The supply side has a slow selling rhythm due to cold weather, and the demand side has concentrated demand in the Northeast. There is also import corn auction. - Outlook: Oscillation [8][9]. 3.1.4 Pigs - View: The supply of pigs is abundant, and the prices are running weakly. - Logic: In the short term, the scale - farm's daily average slaughter volume may increase at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply will increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is being reduced. The demand is affected by temperature, and the inventory is increasing. - Outlook: Oscillation and weakening, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - View: Maintain the range - bound pattern. - Logic: The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, the raw material price is firm but may fall, the demand has not changed significantly, and the RU has greater selling pressure than NR. - Outlook: Continue to maintain a wide - range and high - elasticity oscillation, with no trend in the short term [1][15]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: The market atmosphere is stable, and the disk continues to oscillate. - Logic: The BR's rise is affected by overseas device news. The butadiene supply is abundant, and the downstream buying is cautious. The market has a short - term bottom support. - Outlook: Before the butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions, short at high prices [16][17]. 3.1.7 Cotton - View: The cotton price has limited upward and downward space. - Logic: The previous bullish factors have been digested, the production expectation is increasing, the supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weakening. - Outlook: Short - term callback risk, long - term tendency to oscillate strongly [17]. 3.1.8 Sugar - View: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price continues to weaken. - Logic: The new sugar in the Northern Hemisphere is being squeezed, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the new season. - Outlook: Oscillation and weakening in the medium and long term [18]. 3.1.9 Pulp - View: The disk price has dropped significantly, which is still affected by the inflow and outflow of funds. - Logic: The futures drive the spot, the long - position funds are leaving, and there is a clear position - shifting phenomenon. The supply and demand are both high, and there is no serious contradiction. - Outlook: Oscillation [19]. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - View: The tender support is limited, and the double - gum paper oscillates. - Logic: The paper mills want to maintain prices, the downstream demand is rigid, the tender price is low, and the cost support is general. - Outlook: Oscillation [20]. 3.1.11 Logs - View: The valuation is low, and the disk fluctuates at a low level. - Logic: The supply will increase in December and the long - term pressure exists. The demand is weak and stable. The inventory will gradually decrease in the short term and increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026. - Outlook: Low - level oscillation [22][23]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring No specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index is 2234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index is 2535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial product index is 2200.99, down 0.68%. - Agricultural Product Index: On November 20, 2025, the agricultural product index is 924.06, with a daily decline of 0.52%, a 5 - day decline of 1.46%, a 1 - month decline of 0.45%, and a year - to - date decline of 3.21% [183][185].