国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251121

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space and the valuation is high [2] - Rebar: Weak and oscillating [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Weak and oscillating [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide-range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide-range oscillation [2] - Coke: Wide-range oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Wide-range oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [2] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black series commodities, along with their respective fundamental data and macro/industry news [2][5][9] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: Futures price closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan (-0.38%); import and most domestic spot prices decreased slightly; some basis and spread values changed slightly [4] - Macro/Industry News: In October, the added value of large-scale industries increased by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month; from January to October, it increased by 6.1% year-on-year [5] - Trend Intensity: -1 [5] Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 decreased; trading volume and open interest changed; spot prices in most regions decreased; some basis and spread values changed [8] - Macro/Industry News: According to the weekly data on November 20, rebar production increased by 7.96 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 2.35 tons, total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 44.25 tons, and apparent demand increased [9] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of relevant contracts decreased; spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed; various price differences changed [13] - Macro/Industry News: On November 20, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported; in October, the national manganese ore imports increased [14] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased; trading volume and open interest changed; most spot prices remained stable; some basis and spread values changed [17] - Macro/Industry News: Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [18] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal [18] Logs - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of relevant contracts decreased; trading volume and open interest changed; most spot prices remained stable; various price differences changed [20] - Macro/Industry News: Starting from November 10, 2025, the suspension of importing US logs was lifted [22] - Trend Intensity: 0 [22]