研究所晨会观点精萃：美国非农就业数据大超预期，全球风险偏好大幅下降-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Equities: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2][3] - Treasury Bonds: Short - term shock, cautious long - position [2] - Black Metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2] - Non - ferrous Metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2] - Energy and Chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious and wait - and - see [2] - Precious Metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [2][3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, US employment data is better than expected, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation further declines, and global risk appetite cools significantly. Domestically, China's October economic data slows down year - on - year and falls short of expectations, and the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations to release liquidity. The short - term macro upward drive weakens, and the market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and the Fed's monetary policy expectations [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends. Equities, treasury bonds, and various commodity sectors are mainly in a short - term shock state, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Macro: US September non - farm payrolls exceed expectations, the unemployment rate rises to a four - year high, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation further declines. China's October economic data slows down and falls short of expectations. The central bank releases liquidity, but the Fed's hawkish signals suppress global risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive weakens, and equities are in short - term shock [2]. - Equities: Affected by sectors such as silicon energy, military, and coal, the domestic stock market falls. Due to weak economic data and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term macro upward drive weakens, and equities are in short - term shock. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see [3]. - Precious Metals: After the US non - farm payrolls exceed expectations, the prospect of a December interest - rate cut weakens, and precious metals prices weaken in the short term. They are in short - term shock, and the long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3]. Black Metals - Steel: The steel spot and futures markets continue to weaken. Although demand improves slightly, supply increases, and the price has no room for a sharp decline or a significant rise in the short term. Treat it with an interval - shock mindset [4][5]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore spot and futures prices weaken slightly. The key factor determining the price is the decline process and the bottom - reaching time of hot - metal production. Short - term interval - shock [5]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot price of silicon iron falls, and that of silicon manganese remains flat. The futures prices are expected to continue interval - shock [6]. - Soda Ash: The supply decreases marginally due to some device overhauls, but the overall supply pressure remains. The demand for heavy soda is stable, and that for light soda recovers slightly. Short - term interval - shock, long - term bearish [7]. - Glass: The glass production remains stable, and the demand improves marginally. The downstream demand is still weak, and the inventory is high. Short - term weak operation [7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - Copper: US copper inventories are at a historical high, and domestic refined - copper de - stocking is less than expected. The shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports the futures price. There is a risk of a downward break in the short term [8][9]. - Aluminum: The price of Shanghai aluminum falls slightly. Although the downstream replenishes inventory at low prices, the inventory is still high. The aluminum shortage is a false proposition, and the price may have a large correction. Short - term shock [9]. - Tin: The supply side recovers from overhauls, but the mine supply is tight. The demand side is weak in the peak season. The tin price is at a historical high, and the actual trading activity is insufficient. Short - and medium - term high - level interval - shock [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract of lithium carbonate rises. The exchange strengthens risk control. Short - term cautious long - position or wait - and - see [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon falls. Organic silicon monomer factories plan to jointly reduce emissions and support prices. Pay attention to the continuity of funds and buy on dips [12]. - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon falls. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. Expected to be in a high - level interval - shock [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: If a peace agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia and energy sanctions are lifted, Russian oil supply will return to the market. Due to better - than - expected non - farm data and a lower Fed interest - rate cut probability, oil prices are under pressure and will remain weakly volatile [15]. - Asphalt: Oil prices fall, and the asphalt futures price is approaching last year's low. The social and factory inventories are slightly decreasing, but the demand is in the off - season, and the over - supply pressure is high [15]. - PX: Crude oil falls slightly, and PX has limited upward momentum. It can still get some demand support. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [16]. - PTA: Driven by PX, PTA rebounds, but the supply is still high, and the downstream demand is seasonally weakening. The long - term bearish pressure is large [16]. - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory accumulates significantly, and the downstream demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain in low - level interval - shock [16]. - Short - fiber: Short - fiber rebounds slightly following the polyester sector, but the future pressure is large. The terminal orders are seasonally decreasing, and the inventory is slightly increasing [16]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: Commodity funds sell soybean futures contracts. The US faces competition from Brazilian soybeans in exports but has some support from sales to China. South American soybean planting is affected by floods [17][18]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The domestic soybean and soybean - meal supply and demand are loose, and the basis is weakly stable. With the weakening of US soybeans, soybean meal may have a phased correction [19]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: US biodiesel policy disturbances increase, and the domestic soybean - oil supply is stronger than demand. The state's rapeseed - oil reserve sales are good, and the supply is becoming more abundant [19]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm - oil futures fall, and exports decline. The domestic palm - oil inventory increases, and the price is under pressure [20]. - Corn: The price of Northeast corn is stable. The inventory of ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises is low, and the futures may repair the basis [20]. - Hogs: The live - hog price is stable and slightly strong. The market supply is in excess, and the futures price may continue to fall [20].