棕榈油:反弹高度有限,关注产地去库进程,豆油:暂无突破驱动,区间震荡为主,豆粕:震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-21 01:23
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Limited rebound height, focus on the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][4] - Soybean oil: No breakthrough driving force, mainly range - bound [2][4] - Soybean meal: Fluctuating [2][11] - Soybean: Fluctuating [2][11] - Corn: Fluctuating [2][14] - Sugar: Consolidating at a low level [2][18] - Cotton: Futures prices maintain a fluctuating trend [2][23] - Eggs: Increased culling volume [2][27] - Live pigs: The cooling expectation has been realized, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][29] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2][32] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Palm oil's day - session closing price dropped 2.33%, and night - session rose 0.07%; soybean oil's day - session dropped 1.58%, and night - session rose 0.05% [4] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) price decreased by 70 yuan/ton; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) decreased by 100 yuan/ton [4] - Basis and Spread: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis is 24 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis is 396 yuan/ton; various futures spreads have different changes [4] - Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 14.1% - 20.5% compared with the same period last month [5][6] - India's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 market year are expected to rebound nearly 20% [8] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: DCE soybean 2601's day - session closing price dropped 0.77%, night - session dropped 0.05%; DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session dropped 1.14%, night - session rose 0.13% [11] - Spot: Soybean meal spot price ranges in different regions, with different basis changes [11] - Industry Data: Soybean meal trading volume was 19.1 million tons per day, and inventory was 95.45 million tons per week [11] - Macro and Industry News - On November 20, CBOT soybean futures closed down due to concerns that China may not meet the procurement target [11][13] 3.3 Corn - Fundamental Tracking - Spot: Important spot prices such as Jinzhou's closing price remained unchanged, and Guangdong Shekou's price decreased by 10 yuan/ton [15] - Futures: C2601's day - session closing price dropped 0.14%, night - session rose 0.09%; C2603's day - session dropped 0.23%, night - session rose 0.09% [15] - Spread: The main 01 basis is 22 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 03 inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton [15] - Macro and Industry News - Northern corn bulk shipping and container shipping prices in some areas decreased or remained unchanged; Guangdong Shekou's price decreased [16] 3.4 Sugar - Fundamental Tracking - Price: Raw sugar price is 14.68 cents/pound; mainstream spot price is 5650 yuan/ton; futures main contract price is 5366 yuan/ton [18] - Spread: 15 - spread is 46 yuan/ton; 59 - spread is - 17 yuan/ton; mainstream spot basis is 284 yuan/ton [18] - Macro and Industry News - Pay attention to China's import policy changes for syrup and premixed powder; India's 25/26 sugar export quota is 1.5 million tons [18] - CAOC expects China's 25/26 sugar production to be 11.7 million tons; ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 season [19][20] 3.5 Cotton - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: CF2601's day - session closing price dropped 0.15%, night - session rose 0.26%; CY2601's day - session dropped 0.25%, night - session rose 0.15% [23] - Spot: North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton price decreased by 20 yuan/ton; 3128B index increased by 12 yuan/ton [23] - Spread: CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton; North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton minus CF601 is 910 yuan/ton [23] - Macro and Industry News - Cotton spot trading changed little, and spinning mills' procurement willingness was not strong; ICE cotton futures slightly declined [24] 3.6 Eggs - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Egg 2512's closing price rose 2.29%, and Egg 2601 rose 1.95% [27] - Spread: Egg 12 - 1 spread is - 251; Egg 12 - 5 spread is - 521 [27] - Spot: Liaoning's spot price is 2.90 yuan/jin; Hebei's is 2.60 yuan/jin [27] 3.7 Live Pigs - Fundamental Tracking - Spot: Henan's spot price is 11780 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Sichuan's is 11400 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's is 12360 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [29] - Futures: Live pig 2601's price is 11440 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; Live pig 2603 is 11315 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; Live pig 2605 is 11940 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [29] - Spread: Live pig 2601 basis is 340 yuan/ton; Live pig 1 - 3 spread is 125 yuan/ton [29] 3.8 Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking - Spot: Liaoning 308 general peanuts' price is 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged; Henan Baisha general peanuts' price is 7400 yuan/ton, unchanged [32] - Futures: PK601's closing price dropped 0.69%; PK603 dropped 0.51% [32] - Spread: Liaoning 308 general peanuts' basis is 1302 yuan/ton; 01 - 03 inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton [32] - Spot Market Focus - In Henan, peanut prices in some areas are stable or slightly stronger; in Jilin and Liaoning, farmers are holding prices, and trading is stalemate; in Shandong, prices are basically stable [33]