国新国证期货早报-20251121

Report Overview - The report provides a market analysis of various futures varieties on November 20, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, live pigs, soybean meal, palm oil, Shanghai copper, logs, iron ore, asphalt, cotton, steel, alumina, and Shanghai aluminum [1][2][3] Stock Index Futures - On November 20, A-share market indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3931.05, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.76% to 12980.82, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.12% to 3042.34. The trading volume was 1708.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4564.95, down 23.34 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal Price Movement - On November 20, the coke weighted index closed at 1673.5, down 12.7, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1140.6 yuan, down 38.0 [2][3] Market Analysis - Coke: After the fourth round of price increases, some coke enterprises are still in the red. The overall supply has decreased. Demand increased due to unexpected resumption of production in Hebei steel mills last week, but there is an expectation of seasonal decline in molten iron. The fifth round of price increases is temporarily on hold. - Coking coal: Supply has increased slightly but is limited by environmental protection and safety supervision. Although molten iron production rebounded unexpectedly last week, the profit rate of steel mills decreased. Downstream coking plants have higher inventory days than in previous years, and the mine auction failure rate is high [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by sufficient supply and lower spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell on November 20. From January - October 2025, China imported 100 million tons of syrup and white sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 963600 tons [4] Rubber - On November 20, Shanghai rubber declined slightly during the day due to the weakening prospect of a December interest rate cut in the US, but rose at night due to speculation on the weather in Thailand's rubber - producing areas. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 3% and year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8% [4][6] Live Pigs - On November 20, the LH2601 contract closed at 11440 yuan/ton, down 1.04%. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the decrease in temperature boosts some consumption, the demand recovery is slow due to the late Spring Festival and the impact of substitutes [6] Soybean Meal International Market - On November 20, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The US soybean export sales were at the lower end of the forecast range. As of November 13, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% last year, and the estimated output is 1.767 billion tons [6] Domestic Market - On November 20, the M2601 contract closed at 3017 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is close to one million tons. China has purchased about one million tons of US soybeans [6] Palm Oil - On November 20, the palm oil futures P2601 contract closed at 8646, down 2.33%. From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 828680 tons, a 14.1% decrease from the same period last month [6] Shanghai Copper - On November 20, the Shanghai Copper 2601 contract closed at 86130 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The macro - environment has a hawkish stance on interest rates, and the supply of copper concentrates is tight, while demand from emerging industries provides support [6] Logs - On November 20, the log 2601 contract closed at 772, with an increase of 1121 lots in positions. In October, log imports decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [6][8] Iron Ore - On November 20, the iron ore 2601 contract closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally, but the price is in a volatile trend due to limited growth space for molten iron production [8] Asphalt - On November 20, the asphalt 2601 contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is being depleted, but the demand is limited by cold weather [8] Cotton - On November 20, the Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13500 yuan/ton at night, and the inventory increased by 17 lots. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [8] Steel - On November 20, rb2601 closed at 3050 yuan/ton, and hc2601 at 3267 yuan/ton. The steel market is in a multi - empty game situation, and the steel price is under short - term pressure due to the decline in raw material costs [8] Alumina - On November 20, the ao2601 contract closed at 2732 yuan/ton. The supply of bauxite is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The market trading volume is limited [8] Shanghai Aluminum - On November 20, the al2601 contract closed at 21570 yuan/ton. The metal market is in a volatile state. The supply of aluminum ingots is normal, and the social inventory is decreasing, while the demand shows a weakening trend [8]