美国9月非农就业数据点评：滞后的非农数据或增加美联储12月降息不确定性

Employment Data - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 51,000 and up from the revised negative figure of 22,000 in August[4][15][16] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, while the labor participation rate increased to approximately 62.4%[6][22] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, maintaining stability compared to August[29] Labor Market Dynamics - The three-month average of new jobs is 62,000, indicating a notable increase from the previous two months[5][16] - The share of permanent unemployment decreased, while temporary unemployment and re-employment rates also fell, suggesting a potential decline in short-term labor demand[6][27] - Job openings in August were 7.227 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.3%, indicating stable labor market conditions[7][37] Federal Reserve Outlook - The uncertainty regarding a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased due to conflicting signals from employment data[8][45] - The current interest rate is close to the neutral rate of 3.7%, leading to internal divisions within the Fed regarding the necessity of further rate cuts[8][46] - The decision to cut rates in December will likely depend on the upcoming PCE inflation data, with a baseline expectation of a rate cut remaining plausible[9][47]