隆众资讯晨会纪要-20251121

1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Macro - Financial: A - shares had a high - opening and low - closing trend. The probability of a stagflation scenario is rising. For stock index futures, a wait - and - see approach is recommended; for treasury bond futures, a bullish view on the bond market is maintained [9][10]. - Black: Steel and ore are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and maintain a short - biased view at high levels in the medium - to - long - term. Coal and coke prices may continue to decline in the short - term [13][14][15]. - Non - ferrous and New Materials: Zinc is recommended to hold short positions at high levels; for lithium carbonate, a short - term correction is expected, and a long - term bullish view remains; industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to fluctuate [20][21][22]. - Agricultural Products: Cotton is in a low - level shock bottom - building phase; sugar prices are under pressure and are expected to be short - biased; eggs are expected to fluctuate, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended; apples are expected to fluctuate; corn is recommended to pay attention to the upper pressure on the disk; for dates, a wait - and - see approach is recommended; for live pigs, a short - biased operation on near - month contracts is recommended [26][28][31]. - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil is expected to fluctuate as the market weighs fundamentals and geopolitical conflicts; fuel oil prices will follow oil prices; polyolefins are expected to be weak and fluctuate; rubber is expected to continue to fluctuate; methanol is recommended to be short - biased for near - month contracts and long - biased for far - month contracts after a rebound; caustic soda is recommended to maintain a shock view; asphalt price fluctuations are expected to increase; for the polyester industry chain, a long - PTA and short - ethylene glycol strategy can be considered; LPG is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long - term; pulp is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern [38][39][41]. 3. Summary by Catalog Macro - Financial - Stock Index Futures: The strategy is to maintain a shock view and wait and see. A - shares had a high - opening and low - closing trend. The probability of a stagflation scenario is rising due to non - interest - rate cuts, real - estate stimulus policies, and other factors. In October, except for a decline in the unemployment rate, industrial growth, consumption, and investment all decreased [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The view is bullish on the bond market. After the tax - payment period, the capital market is balanced and loose. The market has digested the news of non - interest - rate cuts, real - estate stimulus policies, etc. The probability of a stagflation scenario is rising [10]. Black - Steel and Ore: In the short - term, they are expected to fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, a short - biased view at high levels is maintained. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. Steel mill profits are low, and there is a possibility of negative feedback. The inventory is higher than last year. The spot market transactions are average [13][14]. - Coal and Coke: Prices may continue to decline in the short - term. Coal production is expected to increase in the short - term but may decrease in the medium - term due to policies. The demand for raw materials from steel mills is temporarily supported [15]. - Ferroalloys: It is recommended to focus on long - term opportunities in ferrosilicon and consider a "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" strategy. The prices of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have declined, and ferrosilicon factories' willingness to reduce production is increasing [17]. - Soda Ash and Glass: A wait - and - see approach is recommended. The production and inventory of soda ash have decreased, and the price has been adjusted. The inventory of glass has slightly increased, and the spot price has been reduced in some areas [18]. Non - ferrous and New Materials - Zinc: It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels. The domestic zinc inventory has decreased. The zinc price is in a shock - downward trend with the possibility of a phased rebound [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: A short - term correction is expected, and a long - term bullish view remains. The inventory reduction has decreased, and the exchange will limit positions on futures contracts [21]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: They are expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is not prominent, and the polysilicon price is supported by the spot price [22]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: It is in a low - level shock bottom - building phase. The supply pressure is large, the demand is weak, and the high cost resists price declines [26]. - Sugar: The price is under pressure and is expected to be short - biased. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and domestic new sugar production is increasing [28]. - Eggs: They are expected to fluctuate. The egg supply is still loose, and the short - term spot performance is not expected to be good [31]. - Apples: They are expected to fluctuate. The apple storage is almost over, and the inventory is lower than last year [33]. - Corn: It is recommended to pay attention to the upper pressure on the disk. The current price rebound is due to supply - demand mismatch, but the supply pressure remains large [35]. - Dates: A wait - and - see approach is recommended. The prices in production and sales areas are at a low level, and the disk is fluctuating [36]. - Live Pigs: A short - biased operation on near - month contracts is recommended. The supply pressure continues, and the demand is average [37]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: It is expected to fluctuate as the market weighs fundamentals and geopolitical conflicts. Geopolitical conflicts have a greater short - term impact [38]. - Fuel Oil: Prices will follow oil prices. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat [39]. - Polyolefins: They are expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply pressure is large, but the production losses of upstream enterprises may provide some support [41]. - Rubber: It is expected to continue to fluctuate. The domestic supply is approaching the end, and the price is relatively firm [42]. - Methanol: It is recommended to be short - biased for near - month contracts and long - biased for far - month contracts after a rebound. The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory is high [43]. - Caustic Soda: A shock view is recommended. The spot price is stable, and the fundamental improvement is not obvious in the short - term [45]. - Asphalt: Price fluctuations are expected to increase. The real - world demand is approaching the end, and attention should be paid to refinery conversion and Venezuelan oil shipments [47]. - Polyester Industry Chain: A long - PTA and short - ethylene glycol strategy can be considered. The supply of PTA has decreased, while the supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase [48]. - LPG: It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term fundamentals are favorable, but the price has risen significantly [49]. - Pulp: It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern. The fundamentals are stable, and the cost provides some support, but the inventory is increasing [49].