新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-21）-20251121

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillating [4] - Silver: High-level oscillating [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillating [6] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [6] - Edible oils: Range-bound [6] - Meal: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Oscillating [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Widely oscillating [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex trend with different commodities having various performances, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations. For example, the iron and steel industry is affected by supply and demand and production reduction policies; the financial market is influenced by macroeconomic data and policies; the agricultural and forestry products market is affected by weather, trade policies, and consumption demand [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Overseas shipments increased by 4474000 tons to 35164000 tons, while domestic port arrivals continued to decline. Daily average hot metal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 236280 tons. The demand core lies in the real estate sector, with new construction dropping to the 2005 level. The supply-demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target and the heating season supply guarantee meeting, the upward driving force weakened. Although the fourth round of price hikes has been implemented, the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited, and there are obvious differences in sentiment for the fifth round of price hikes. The supply-demand relationship has become looser again, and it is in an adjustment state in the short term [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter storage replenishment has not started yet. The price is mainly oscillating. The key lies in steel demand, and the steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2]. - Glass: The spot quotation is relatively weak, and the demand is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion. The enterprise inventory has been increasing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and macro - and production reduction policies [2]. Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Some sectors showed capital inflows and outflows. The market is in short - term consolidation, and the medium - term trend is still upward, suggesting long - holding of stock indices [2][4]. - Treasury bonds: The central bank carried out 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding, suggesting light - position long - holding of treasury bonds [4]. - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors, while the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks provide long - term support [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - Logs: The port daily average shipment decreased, and the import volume decreased year - on - year. The inventory pressure is large, and the spot price is weak. It is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating [6]. - Pulp: The spot market price is weakly adjusted, the cost support is weakened, and the demand is poor. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - Offset paper: The supply is stable, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the market expectation is cautious. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - Edible oils: The overall supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue range - bound operation [6]. - Meal: The global soybean supply is relatively loose, and domestic supply is abundant while demand is cautious. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [6][7]. - Live pigs: The trading weight fluctuates, the settlement price may face downward pressure, and the slaughter enterprise start - up rate is expected to continue to increase, with the average price expected to oscillate [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - Rubber: Different regions have different production situations due to weather. The demand side shows some improvement, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to be widely oscillating [10]. - PX: Supply is strong, and downstream polyester load has rebounded, with the price mainly oscillating [10]. - PTA: Supported by raw materials, the supply - demand relationship has improved, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost end [10]. - MEG: There is still long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be widely adjusted in the short term [10]. - PR: Lack of support from crude oil and raw materials, with weak downstream demand, the market may continue to be sluggish [10]. - PF: The demand side is average, and the supply is relatively loose, with the market expected to be weakly sorted [10].