HTSC·2025-11-21 01:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5][31] Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q3 2025 increased by 8% year-on-year to 28.4 billion RMB, slightly below consensus expectations by 3% [1][7] - Deferred revenue exceeded expectations by 3%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5 billion RMB, primarily driven by "Fantasy Westward Journey" [1][2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 27% year-on-year to 9.5 billion RMB, surpassing consensus expectations by 1% [1][5] - The report anticipates significant improvement in revenue for Q4, driven by the launch of "Fantasy Westward Journey" and other new game releases [1][2] Revenue and Profitability - Q3 gaming and value-added services revenue rose by 12% year-on-year to 23.3 billion RMB, with gaming revenue increasing by 13% [2][12] - The gross margin for gaming and value-added services improved by 0.5 percentage points to 69.3% [2][12] - The report projects game revenue growth of 13% and 8% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1][5] Game Performance and Updates - "Fantasy Westward Journey" launched a new play mode that significantly increased player engagement, with peak concurrent players reaching 3.58 million [1][13] - The international version of "Yanyun" performed well, reaching 2 million players on its first day on Steam, and is expected to generate 1-1.5 billion RMB in its first year [3][5] - "Egg Party" saw a notable increase in revenue, with iOS revenue growing by 122% year-on-year in October [2][22] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2027, primarily due to slowing growth in mobile game revenue [5][31] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are set at 39.3 billion RMB, 41.8 billion RMB, and 46.1 billion RMB, respectively [5][31] - The target price for the company is set at 170.12 USD, corresponding to an 18.3x PE ratio for 2026 [5][36]