宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年11月21日）-20251121

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all "oscillating weakly" [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5] - Core Logic: Cost support has weakened as U.S. soybean export demand is lower than expected and the outlook for U.S. biodiesel policy is unclear, dragging down U.S. soybean futures prices. The spot market is also weak. Although the forward basis trading volume has slightly increased, traders are continuously losing money, and downstream aquaculture mostly replenishes based on rigid demand. The market faces double pressure of loose supply and weak demand. The 3000 yuan/ton level has become a key psychological and technical support level [5] Soybean Oil (Y) - Viewpoints: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7] - Core Logic: The core pressure comes from the uncertainty of U.S. biodiesel policy. Trump's government considering delaying the import biofuel incentive cut plan has hit the demand expectation of U.S. soybean oil for biodiesel, leading to a decline in U.S. soybean oil futures prices. In addition, as soybean futures prices fall from high levels, the cost support for domestic soybean oil from imported soybeans has weakened. The domestic soybean oil market supply is very loose, and the inventory has reached a high level of nearly 1.2 million tons in the same period, with weak terminal edible oil consumption [7] Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [8] - Core Logic: The palm oil market is facing a game between high supply and policy expectations. In the short term, the high inventory pressure in the producing areas limits the upside space, and its trend more depends on external markets such as soybean oil. Biodiesel policy is a key variable. The reality of loose supply and weak demand in the palm oil market is the main pressure, and the month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1st - 20th has widened, increasing market bearish sentiment [8]