丙烯日报：丙烯下游整体开工环比上升-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral strategy, suggesting that the propylene market may mainly oscillate within the bottom range due to the narrowing supply - demand gap but insufficient cost - side support and limited upward driving force. There are no ratings for the inter - period and cross - variety strategies [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week, upstream maintenance increased, leading to a decline in propylene production, while downstream production resumed and overall downstream operations increased. The narrowing supply - demand gap of propylene promoted better trading in the spot market, and the propylene spot price strengthened in the short term. However, the domestic coal price continued to fall, and the expectation of a loose propylene supply - demand situation remained unchanged. The propylene futures price rebounded slightly, but its upward space was limited. The cost - side support for propylene remained limited due to the wide fluctuations in international oil prices and the pressure of oversupply, as well as the slight increase in the price of external propane. Although the demand - side support for propylene increased, considering the pressure on downstream profits due to the propylene price and the narrowing price difference between PP and propylene, the demand support might decline [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - This section includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The section covers figures such as the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][19] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profits - It contains figures about the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, the difference between Japan CFR and China CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [31][33] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - This part includes figures on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, the production profit and operating rate of propylene oxide, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of n - butanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of octanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile, and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of phenol - acetone [39][40][47] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The section shows figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]