国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [2]. - Silver: In a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - Copper: Risk sentiment remains weak, and prices are oscillating [2][10]. - Zinc: Subject to macro - level disturbances [2][13]. - Lead: Reduced inventory restricts price decline [2][16]. - Tin: Prices have fallen from a high level [2][19]. - Aluminum: Affected by macro - level disturbances; Alumina: Ranging within a certain interval; Casting aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support levels and are under pressure to move in an oscillatory manner; Stainless steel: Weak market reality suppresses steel prices, but the downside is limited [2][27][28]. - Lithium carbonate: The speed of inventory reduction has slowed down, and a market sentiment cooldown may lead to a price correction [2][33]. - Industrial silicon: The market shows a weak pattern; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2][36][37]. - Iron ore: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is relatively high [2][40]. - Rebar: Oscillating weakly; Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating weakly [2][43]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation; Manganese silicon: Wide - range oscillation [2][48]. - Coke: Wide - range oscillation; Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][52]. - Logs: Repeated oscillations [2][54]. - Para - xylene: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits; PTA: In a single - sided oscillatory market, avoid chasing high prices; MEG: New device launches lead to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure persists [2][28]. - Rubber: Oscillating; Synthetic rubber: Oscillating [2][31][33]. - Asphalt: Following the weak trend of crude oil [2][35]. - LLDPE: Agricultural demand may be approaching its peak, pay attention to supply pressure; PP: Do not chase short - term short positions, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend; Caustic soda: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37][38][39]. - Pulp: Oscillating [2][40]. - Glass: The price of original glass is stable [2][42]. - Methanol: Oscillating weakly, with the downside space narrowing; Urea: Short - term oscillation has support; Styrene: Short - term oscillation; Soda ash: Little change in the spot market [2][43][45][47][48]. - LPG: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term; Propylene: Spot prices are trending strongly, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom; PVC: Do not chase short positions, oscillating at a low level; Fuel oil: Short - term strength, continuous rebound at night; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The weak trend continues, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has slightly declined; Container shipping index (European line): In an oscillatory market; Short - fiber: Short - term oscillatory market; Bottle chips: Short - term oscillatory market, with processing fees being compressed; Offset printing paper: Oscillating at a low level; Pure benzene: Overseas gasoline blending has started, mainly oscillating in the short term; Palm oil: The rebound height is limited, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas; Soybean oil: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, mainly oscillating within a certain range; Soybean meal: Oscillating; Soybean: Oscillating; Corn: Oscillating; Sugar: Consolidating at a low level; Cotton: Futures prices maintain an oscillatory trend; Eggs: The volume of culled hens has increased; Pigs: The expectation of temperature drop has materialized, and pressure is gradually being released; Peanuts: Pay attention to the spot market [2][5][49] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamental Data: For gold, the closing prices of domestic and international futures contracts showed declines, trading volumes and positions changed, and ETF positions decreased. For silver, futures prices also declined, trading volumes decreased, and positions increased. Inventory levels of both decreased [6]. - Macro and Industry News: The US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed, with unemployment reaching a four - year high. The number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased last week, while the number of continued claims reached a four - year high. Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [6][9]. Copper - Fundamental Data: Futures prices showed minor fluctuations, trading volumes and positions changed, inventory levels varied, and spot - futures spreads also changed [10]. - Macro and Industry News: US employment data was mixed, and the Netherlands suspended intervention in Nexperia. Peru's copper production increased, a copper mine project in Chile obtained environmental approval, China's copper product output decreased, and import and export data for copper - related products changed [10][12]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: Futures prices declined slightly, trading volumes decreased, positions increased, inventory levels changed, and various price spreads and premiums also changed [13]. - News: The US September non - farm report showed mixed signals in the employment market, which may complicate the Fed's December decision [13]. Lead - Fundamental Data: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions declined, inventory levels changed, and price spreads and import - related data also changed [16]. - News: Similar to other metals, it was affected by the US employment data [17]. Tin - Fundamental Data: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, inventory levels varied, and spot prices and price spreads changed [21]. - Macro and Industry News: In addition to the US employment data, there were reports about Trump's AI policy and the White House's pressure on Congress regarding AI chip exports [21][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: For electrolytic aluminum, futures prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory levels, and price spreads changed. For alumina, relevant data also showed certain trends. For casting aluminum alloy, prices and inventory levels changed [24]. - Comprehensive News: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, and there were differences within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, and various industrial chain prices and spreads also changed [28]. - Macro and Industry News: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for nickel imports, and there were regulations and policies in the Indonesian mining industry. There were also trade - related threats from the US [28][30][31]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventory levels of lithium carbonate contracts changed, and the prices of related products in the industrial chain also showed certain trends [33]. - Macro and Industry News: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, and production and inventory data for lithium carbonate changed [34]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and price spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon changed, and spot prices, profits, and inventory levels also varied [37]. - Macro and Industry News: A 200 - megawatt photovoltaic project in Xinjiang was put into operation [38]. Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices declined slightly, and price spreads changed [40]. - Macro and Industry News: China's industrial added value data was released [41]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices declined, and price spreads changed [43]. - Macro and Industry News: Weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand data for steel products were released, and national steel production data from January to October was also provided [44][46]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Fundamental Data: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices and price spreads also changed [48]. - Macro and Industry News: Price information for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon was released, and manganese ore import data was provided [49][50]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices remained stable, and price spreads changed [52]. - Macro and Industry News: The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply during the heating season [53].