Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the crude oil market is in an oversupply situation, with downward driving forces and weakening short - term geopolitical influence, so it should be treated as oscillating weakly [1]. - The Fed's October FOMC meeting minutes increase the uncertainty of a December interest rate cut, and precious metals are in a state of oscillation. Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. - The national pig price adjusted strongly, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, lacking continuous upward momentum. The LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [3]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil in November has declined significantly, weakening the fundamentals and suppressing the spot price. However, the departure of a large number of short positions in the main contract of palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has supported the futures price, and low - buying operations are recommended [3]. - The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the oil mill's operating rate is slowly recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The increase in soybean meal inventory restricts the upward space of the spot price, and the 01 contract price is expected to decline and oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. - The downstream polyester demand in November is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply side has many maintenance plans, with improved supply - demand conditions. However, the crude oil price is unstable, so it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - The raw material price of rubber is high, but the terminal demand is insufficient, and the price is expected to oscillate [5]. - The domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the port inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [7]. - The good data of the US real estate market increase risk appetite and are beneficial to silver. The market still maintains the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Silver is under short - term pressure but is still bullish in the medium term [7]. - The domestic PVC production is expected to remain high, the profit is poor, the downstream demand is limited, and the social inventory is expected to rise. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - The money market is marginally tight, which is negative for short - term bonds. The economy is under pressure in the fourth quarter, and the central bank's operations are beneficial to the bond market. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term [9]. - The supply and demand of float glass are loose, the inventory of sample enterprises is higher than in previous years, and the downstream orders are weak. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Crude Oil - The overall supply of the crude oil market is in an oversupply situation, with downward driving forces and weakening short - term geopolitical influence, so it should be treated as oscillating weakly [1]. Gold - The Fed's October FOMC meeting minutes increase the uncertainty of a December interest rate cut, and precious metals are in a state of oscillation. Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1]. Pig - On November 20, the national average pork price was 17.94 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from the previous day. The price has been low, and the farming side's sentiment to support the price has emerged, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [3]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased significantly. The fundamental weakness suppresses the spot price, but the departure of a large number of short positions in the main contract of palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has supported the futures price. Low - buying operations are recommended [3]. Soybean Meal - As of November 20, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 3048 yuan/ton. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the oil mill's operating rate is slowly recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The increase in inventory restricts the upward space of the spot price, and the 01 contract price is expected to decline and oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. PTA - PTA social inventory decreased by 3.92 million tons to 324.88 million tons. The downstream polyester demand in November is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply side has many maintenance plans, with improved supply - demand conditions. However, the crude oil price is unstable, so it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Rubber - The raw material price of rubber is high, but the terminal demand is insufficient, and the price is expected to oscillate. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises has decreased [5]. Methanol - The domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the port inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [7]. Silver - The good data of the US real estate market increase risk appetite and are beneficial to silver. The market still maintains the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Silver is under short - term pressure but is still bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the differentiation between gold and silver [7]. PVC - The price of PVC in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 4420 yuan/ton. The domestic PVC production is expected to remain high, the profit is poor, the downstream demand is limited, and the social inventory is expected to rise. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - The money market is marginally tight, which is negative for short - term bonds. The economy is under pressure in the fourth quarter, and the central bank's operations are beneficial to the bond market. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. Glass - The national average price of float glass decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1106 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of float glass are loose, the inventory of sample enterprises is higher than in previous years, and the downstream orders are weak. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [10].
宁证期货今日早评-20251121
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-11-21 02:00