尿素早评20251121：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251121

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's low valuation is due to the market's consensus on the pressure of supply-demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, urea prices are supported at low levels [1]. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to take profit on sold options and focus on long - position opportunities on dips in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Directory Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1665 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 remained unchanged at 1735 yuan/ton; UR09 closed at 1739 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.29% [1]. - Domestic spot prices (small - granular): Prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, with increases of 0.61%, 0.67%, 0.61%, and 0.62% respectively; prices in Henan and Northeast remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton; the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong increased by 7 yuan/ton or 0.14%, and remained unchanged in Jiangsu at 5200 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1661 yuan/ton, the highest was 1674 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1648 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1665 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1661 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 245423 lots [1]. Multi - Short Logic - Valuation: Although urea has rebounded recently, the rebound is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1]. - Driving factors: The new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1].