宝城期货原油早报-20251121

Report Summary of Crude Oil 1. Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday. It is likely to maintain a weakening trend, with the market showing a weak supply - demand structure and geopolitical sentiment in a state of game [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - Time - cycle View - Short - term (within one week): The crude oil 2601 contract is in a state of oscillation [1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2601 contract is in a state of oscillation, and the overall crude oil market is also expected to oscillate [1][5] - Intraday: The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to be weak, and domestic crude oil futures on Friday are expected to maintain a weakening trend [1][5] - Driving Logic - The latest OPEC quarterly report shows that the global oil market in the third quarter has changed from "supply shortage" to a "daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", which amplifies the expectation of loose supply [5] - After the geopolitical factors become prominent, the crude oil futures price shows an oscillating and stabilizing trend under the boost of optimistic funds [5] - After digesting the positive factors of the rebound in European diesel prices, the oil market is facing the pressure of oversupply again. The domestic crude oil futures maintained a weakly - oscillating trend in the night session on Thursday, with the futures price slightly lower [5]