宝城期货煤焦早报（2025年11月21日）-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both the short - term and medium - term, the views on both coking coal and coke are "sideways trading". The intraday view is "sideways trading with a weak bias", and the overall reference view is a "sideways trading approach" [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - Price Trend: Since November, coking coal has been in a continuous correction [5]. - Core Logic: The divergence on the supply side has increased. On one hand, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply guarantee, and the output of 523 coking coal mines improved week - on - week last week. On the other hand, there is a lack of new policy incentives for the coal industry after the production capacity verification in July. The strong supply - side expectations have slowed down, and the upward breakthrough drive is insufficient. However, the expectations of the Politburo meeting in December and the reduction of coal mine output at the end of the year remain to be fulfilled [5]. Coke (J) - Price Trend: The fourth round of price increases for coke has been difficult to implement [6]. - Core Logic: In the spot market, the atmosphere of coking coal spot has cooled down. In terms of supply and demand, as of the week of November 14, the total daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants decreased week - on - week, while the daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased week - on - week. The short - term fundamentals have improved, but the sustainability is limited, and there are still concerns about demand [6].