Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may have a marginal inflection point [2]. - For the black sector, compared with short - selling, the cost - effectiveness of finding positions to rebound may be higher. The subsequent price increase depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity [10]. - Industrial silicon may present a situation of "weak supply and demand" and is expected to operate in a volatile manner. Polysilicon is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation, and its price will fluctuate widely within the range [13][16]. - The glass industry's fundamentals continue to be weak, and the soda ash market lacks a clear direction and is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [19][21]. Summary by Categories Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) Market Information - Rebar: The closing price of the main contract was 3050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.65%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 54306 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 57810 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the main contract was 3267 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 4179 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 44323 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar: Supply and demand both decreased, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. - Hot - rolled coil: Terminal demand continued to rise, production declined slightly, but the inventory level was still high. In the short term, prices are likely to weaken, but steel demand may improve with policy implementation [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) closed at 788.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00), and the open interest decreased by 3421 lots to 47.75 million lots. The weighted open interest was 93.23 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.14% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments increased significantly. Demand: The average daily molten iron output decreased, and the number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts. Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. In the short term, iron ore is expected to operate within a volatile range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - Manganese silicon: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.50% at 5614 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the physical delivery price of 5840 yuan/ton, a premium of 226 yuan/ton over the futures price. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract (SF603) closed down 1.05% at 5446 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][8]. Strategy Views - As the time approaches December, the impact of macro - expectations on sentiment and prices is expected to be positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for ferrosilicon, the cost - effectiveness of operation is low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2601) was 9075 yuan/ton, down 3.35% (- 315). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 28315 lots to 442628 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged, and the basis was 275 yuan/ton; the price of 421 increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 75 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2601) was 52450 yuan/ton, down 3.98% (- 2175). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 4824 lots to 238398 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re -投料 remained unchanged, and the basis was - 150 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: It may present a "weak supply and demand" situation and is expected to operate in a volatile manner. - Polysilicon: It is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within the range [13][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 989 yuan/ton, down 1.98% (- 20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million cases (+ 0.09%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 16374 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 13285 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1158 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (- 24). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons (- 0.09%), including a decrease of 1.98 million tons in heavy - soda ash inventory and 4.31 million tons in light - soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 974 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 15205 lots [20]. Strategy Views - Glass: The market lacks positive factors, supply is relatively abundant, demand is weak, inventory is high, and the industry fundamentals continue to be weak. - Soda ash: The supply - side capacity fluctuates little, the terminal glass price is weak, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [19][21].
黑色建材日报-20251121
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-21 02:20