期货市场交易指引2025年11月21日-20251121

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar are advised for range trading; glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum is for long - position reduction; nickel is for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [1][11][17][19] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch [1][20][23][32] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in a low - level sideways trend; apples are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend; red dates are expected to be in a slightly weak sideways trend [1][35][37] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs are under pressure for rebound; eggs have limited upside potential; corn is in a bottom - building sideways trend; soybean meal is in a range - bound trend; oils and fats are in a weak adjustment [1][40][43][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on their fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and supply - demand relationships. It analyzes factors such as economic data, policy expectations, production, consumption, and inventory levels to predict price trends and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index Futures: They are expected to trade sideways in the short - term and are long - term bullish. With market hotspots rotating quickly and no clear main line, factors like US employment data and policy expectations affect the market. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5] - Treasury Bonds: They are expected to trade sideways. After previous trading operations, the most fluent phase of yield decline has ended, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. Short - term trading is influenced by news, economic data, and policy expectations, while long - term trading awaits signals from the Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: It is in a sideways trend. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory, with low purchasing willingness from various parties [7][8] - Rebar: It is expected to trade sideways. The futures price has fallen below certain cost levels, and in the short - term, there is no major supply - demand contradiction, with steel prices likely to be in a low - level sideways trend [8] - Glass: It is recommended to sell call options. The main contract's position has reached a new high, and the market is weak due to factors such as unchanged supply, slowdown in restocking, and weakening demand. There is a risk of further demand decline and delivery pressure in the near - term [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: It is in a high - level sideways trend. Market sentiment has turned cautious, and factors such as US government policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. Although there is long - term potential, short - term risks exist, and range trading or waiting and watching is advised [11] - Aluminum: It is expected to trade sideways. Alumina production has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply and demand are balanced. With the approach of the off - season and other factors, the price is likely to be range - bound [12] - Nickel: It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies. Indonesia's policy adjustment may affect supply, and there is an overall surplus in the nickel market, with different trends in various nickel products [16] - Tin: It is for cautious range trading. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak, but low overseas inventory provides some support [17] - Silver and Gold: They are expected to trade sideways. The US government's policy and Fed's interest - rate expectations affect the prices, and there is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [19] - Lithium Carbonate: It is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. Attention should be paid to the progress of mine certificates in Yichun and downstream production schedules [20] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports are the main factors, and attention should be paid to cost, policy, and inventory changes [20] - Caustic Soda: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High inventory in the alumina industry exerts pressure on the caustic soda spot market, and attention should be paid to the verification of production - reduction expectations [23] - Styrene: It is expected to trade sideways. Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to a balanced market, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and production schedules [24][25] - Rubber: It is expected to trade sideways, with support at the 15000 level. Cost support and inventory pressure coexist, and the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has some fluctuations [26] - Urea: It is expected to trade sideways. High supply, increasing demand in some sectors, and high inventory limit the upward potential of prices [28] - Methanol: It is expected to trade sideways. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - level changes and production schedules [29] - Polyolefins: PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. Cost compression, increasing supply, and weakening demand lead to a potential expansion of the supply - demand gap [30][31] - Soda Ash: 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch. Supply is expected to contract, and cost support is strong, with limited downward space for the price [34][35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: They are expected to trade sideways. Global supply - demand data is relatively loose, and downstream consumption is weak [35] - PTA: It is in a low - level sideways trend. Supply is accumulating, demand is weak, and the price is affected by factors such as oil prices and cost [35][37] - Apples: They are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend. With a decline in both production and quality, prices are likely to remain strong [37] - Red Dates: They are expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and prices are slightly loosening [38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: They are under pressure for rebound. Short - term price fluctuations are affected by factors such as secondary fattening and demand, and long - term supply remains high [40] - Eggs: They have limited upside potential. Supply is sufficient in the short - term, and demand is stable. In the long - term, supply pressure may gradually ease [43] - Corn: It is in a bottom - building sideways trend. Short - term price is affected by new - grain listing, and long - term supply - demand is relatively balanced with some pressure on the upside [44][45] - Soybean Meal: It is in a range - bound trend. US soybean supply - demand and domestic buying and selling affect the price, and range trading or basis pricing is recommended [45] - Oils and Fats: They are in a weak adjustment. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and short - term adjustment risks exist, with long - term potential for wide - range fluctuations [46][51]