新能源及有色金属日报：国内社会库存重心持续下移-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The zinc market shows positive fundamentals. With the significant decline in TC, the smelting comprehensive profit is severely compressed, and the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease more than expected. Although LME inventory increases, the warrant inventory remains low, and the overseas premium stays high. The unexpected seasonal decline of domestic social inventory supports zinc prices, and most micro - data has shifted from negative to positive [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $152.14 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,430 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,370 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,390 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan per ton [2]. - Futures: On November 20, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,455 yuan per ton, closed at 22,380 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 54,719 lots, and the position was 61,797 lots. The highest price was 22,495 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,380 yuan per ton [3]. - Inventory: As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 152,700 tons, down 3,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 46,075 tons, up 1,000 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - Fundamentals: In November, domestic zinc concentrate TC decreased significantly, and overseas TC also declined. Smelters actively purchased domestic and foreign ores, and the import TC guidance price for the first quarter of next year decreased. The short - term TC decline trend continues. The smelting end is under pressure, with reduced comprehensive profits and even losses in high - cost areas, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure [5]. - Market Situation: Although LME inventory increased, the warrant inventory is still low, and the warrant risk remains. The overseas premium is high. The unexpected seasonal decline of domestic social inventory supports zinc prices, and the spot discount has been quickly repaired after the zinc price correction [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [6]. - Arbitrage: Carry trade in the same commodity across different delivery months [6].