新能源及有色金属日报：资金情绪短期消退，工业硅多晶硅盘面回落-20251121

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price has a slight increase, and after the production reduction in Southwest China during the dry - season, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and inventory accumulation slows down. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies pushing for capacity exit, the futures price may rise. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumption performance. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][7]. 3. Summary by Topic Industrial Silicon - Futures Market: On November 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9365 yuan/ton and closed at 9075 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.37% from the previous settlement. The 2511 main contract held 273978 positions, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43297, a decrease of 115 from the previous day [1]. - Spot Market: The industrial silicon spot price increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9500 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 54.8 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons from last week. The social general warehouse inventory was 12.9 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 41.9 tons, unchanged from last week [1]. - Export and Import: In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 4.51 tons, a sharp decrease of 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 60.67 tons, a decrease of 1% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 0.86 tons, a decrease of 67% year - on - year [2]. - Consumption: The price of silicone DMC continued to rise, with the current market quotation ranging from 13000 to 13200 yuan/ton, an increase of about 850 yuan/ton or 6.9% from last week's average price. In October 2025, the export volume of primary polysiloxanes from China was 4.1 tons, a decrease of 13.5% month - on - month and 5.7% year - on - year [2]. - Strategy: Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, buy on dips [2]. Polysilicon - Futures Market: On November 20, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2601 fluctuated weakly. It opened at 54500 yuan/ton and closed at 52450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 134292 positions, and the trading volume was 304835 [5]. - Spot Market: The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [5]. - Inventory and Production: Polysilicon factory inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10, a change of 1.50% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW, a change of 1.63% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 27100.00 tons, a change of 1.11% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 12.78GW, a change of - 2.59% month - on - month [5]. - Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Prices: Silicon wafer prices fell due to poor order demand. The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece. The prices of various types of battery cells and components remained stable [5][6]. - Strategy: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 and 55,000 yuan/ton [7].