化工日报：煤价继续下跌，EG增仓下行-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Cross - period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread. Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,822 yuan/ton (a change of - 81 yuan/ton or - 2.08% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 3,876 yuan/ton (a change of - 49 yuan/ton or - 1.25% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in the East China EG market was 32 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 8 yuan/ton) [1] - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 1,024 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton) [1] - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7.1 tons); according to Longzhong data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 63.3 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week totaled 11.1 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 2.8 tons, showing a neutral situation [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and the domestic supply is abundant. Overseas, there are limited changes in ethylene glycol plants, and the arrival plan around mid - November is still moderately high, with port inventories expected to gradually rise. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3,822 yuan/ton (a change of - 81 yuan/ton or - 2.08% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China EG market was 3,876 yuan/ton (a change of - 49 yuan/ton or - 1.25% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in the East China EG market was 32 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 8 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 1,024 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data and analysis provided in the text Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7.1 tons); according to Longzhong data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 63.3 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week totaled 11.1 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 2.8 tons, showing a neutral situation [1]