新能源及有色金属日报：美元偏强情况下，铜价维持震荡格局-20251121

Report Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put Core View - Although high copper prices significantly suppress consumption, due to tight supply at the mine end and better - than - expected performance of new energy sectors like photovoltaics in the second half of the year, copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On November 20, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 86,540 yuan/ton and closed at 86,130 yuan/ton, a 0.06% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 86,380 yuan/ton and closed at 85,920 yuan/ton, a 0.53% drop from the afternoon close [1] - Spot Situation: SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot price was 86,180 - 86,690 yuan/ton on November 20, with an average premium of 80 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The import loss widened to around 800 yuan/ton. Market sentiment improved, and copper price drops spurred downstream restocking. Regional price differences may continue [2] - Important Information: US September non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than double the expected level, but July and August figures were revised down by 33,000. The September unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. US initial jobless claims decreased by 8,000 to 220,000 last week, while continuing claims reached a 4 - year high. Trump may delay semiconductor tariff implementation and plans to launch an AI development plan [3] Supply - Side Analysis - Mine End: Chile, the world's largest copper producer, faces production constraints. This year's production is expected to increase by only 0.1% to 5.51 million tons, with a 2.5% growth to 5.6 million tons in 2026. Magna Mining's Levack mine has significant nickel, copper, and precious metal resources, with plans for restart and development in 2026 [4] - Smelting and Imports: In October 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased by 13.62% month - on - month and 16.32% year - on - year. Reasons include RMB exchange - rate fluctuations, lower domestic spot premiums, and closed import windows. Domestic social inventories have been rising since late September, and domestic production growth has compensated for the import shortfall [5] Demand - Side Analysis - Consumption: China aims to add 100 GW of new energy storage capacity from 2025 - 2027, reaching 180 GW by 2027. The US is expected to add 19 GW of storage power and 52.5 GWh of capacity in 2025. Energy storage expansion will increase demand for copper, with China's copper demand in the electric vehicle and energy - transition sectors expected to grow by 18% to 3 million tons in 2025 [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 17,375 tons to 157,925 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 3,369 tons to 54,983 tons. On November 20, domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 194,500 tons, a 700 - ton change from the previous week [7] Strategy - Copper: Buy on dips between 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton for hedging, and sell - hedge enterprises can operate between 88,500 - 89,000 yuan/ton [8] - Arbitrage: Suspend operations - Options: Short put