新能源及有色金属日报：社会库存持续震荡-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Report Core View - For electrolytic aluminum, after the Fed's probability of interest - rate cut expectation is lowered, the aluminum price rises and then falls. The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged. Although the inventory is weaker than expected, the absolute value of social inventory is low. The macro - environment is still promising. Overseas, the spot premium of aluminum ingots continues to rise, and there is seasonal restocking in Q4. Domestically, the proportion of molten aluminum is high, and the output of aluminum rods is increasing. If the social inventory is destocked smoothly, the aluminum price may break through upwards [6]. - For alumina, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. The current fundamentals have no positive factors, and the price is undervalued, but there may be continuous disturbances in overseas mines [7][8]. Summary by Related Data Aluminum Spot - On November 20, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,570 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium of East China aluminum was - 10 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,480 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,450 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 125 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On November 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,620 yuan/ton, closed at 21,530 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,640 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,515 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,843 lots, and the position was 338,582 lots [2] Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 621,000 tons, with a change of - 25,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 69,408 tons, with a change of - 76 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 544,075 tons, with a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On November 20, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On November 20, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,740 yuan/ton, closed at 2,732 yuan/ton, with a change of - 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 1.26%. The highest price was 2,748 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,716 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 266,933 lots, and the position was 411,305 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 20, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]