新能源及有色金属日报：去库幅度有所收窄，监管趋严，需注意减仓风险-20251121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The inventory is continuously being depleted, but the pace of depletion is slowing down, and consumption has certain support. Currently, the resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to gradually resume production in the future. Regulatory measures have been strengthened, and attention should be paid to the impact of significant changes in positions. It is necessary to focus on the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and the mine end resumes production, the inventory may shift from depletion to accumulation, and the market may decline at that time [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 20, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 99,780 yuan/ton and closed at 98,980 yuan/ton, with the closing price changing by 0.84% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,595,646 lots, and the open interest was 479,602 lots, compared with 503,132 lots in the previous trading day. According to SMM spot quotes, the current basis is -9,200 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on that day were 26,916 lots, changing by 150 lots compared to the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 87,800 - 94,800 yuan/ton, changing by 2,400 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 87,000 - 90,800 yuan/ton, also changing by 2,400 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,245 US dollars/ton, changing by 45 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - Customs data shows that in October, the import of spodumene decreased by a certain amount month - on - month, reaching 652,000 physical tons, equivalent to approximately 61,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe together contributed 85.7% of the total imports. Among them, the ore from Australia was 295,000 tons, a 15% month - on - month decrease; the ore from Nigeria was about 110,000 tons, an 8% month - on - month decrease, with a significant increase in the proportion of lithium concentrate; the ore from Zimbabwe was 153,000 tons, a 40.9% month - on - month increase. In addition, the import from South Africa decreased significantly, with an import of nearly 50,000 tons in October, a 54.1% month - on - month decrease [2]. - According to the latest weekly statistical data, the weekly output increased by 585 tons to 22,130 tons. The production using spodumene and mica as raw materials, as well as the production from salt lakes and recycling, all increased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,052 tons to a total of 118,420 tons. The inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory in other links increased. Recently, the consumer side still has good support [2]. Policy Adjustment - Starting from the trading time on November 24, 2025, the transaction fee standard for the lithium carbonate futures LC2601 contract will be adjusted to 0.032% of the transaction amount, and the intraday closing - out fee standard will also be adjusted to 0.032% of the transaction amount. For the lithium carbonate futures LC2602, LC2603, LC2604, and LC2605 contracts, the transaction fee standard will be adjusted to 0.016% of the transaction amount, and the intraday closing - out fee standard will also be adjusted to 0.016% of the transaction amount [3]. - Starting from the trading time on November 24, 2025, non - futures company members or customers are not allowed to open more than 500 lots per day on the lithium carbonate futures LC2601 contract, and not more than 2,000 lots per day on the lithium carbonate futures LC2602, LC2603, LC2604, and LC2605 contracts. Hedging transactions and market - making transactions are not subject to the above - mentioned daily open - position limits. Accounts with actual control relationships are managed as one account [3]. Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Mainly wait and see in the short term. Pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices [4]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options [4].