新能源及有色金属日报：弱势不改，沪镍不锈钢震荡下行-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The nickel market is in a situation of high inventory and oversupply, and the nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market faces low demand, high inventory, and a continuous downward shift in cost, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On November 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 115,750 yuan/ton and closed at 115,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.23% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 124,692 (+42,129) lots, and the open interest was 152,848 (12,764) lots. It showed a weak and oscillating downward trend. The uncertainty of the Fed's policy increased, the probability of a December interest rate cut was less than 50%, the US dollar strengthened, and the supply - demand relationship became looser with rising inventory, leading to a clear short - term downward trend [1]. - Nickel Ore: The nickel ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price remained stable. In the Philippines, the 1.4% nickel ore tender of Eramen landed at $42/wet ton, and the 1.25% nickel ore tender of Benguet had no deal. The nickel - iron tender price of downstream mainstream steel mills reached a new low of 880 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and iron plants were not very motivated to produce and mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude towards raw material procurement. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November dropped by $0.12 - 0.2/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. - Spot: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 119,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream buyers made purchases mainly for rigid demand, and the overall spot transaction was okay. The premiums of Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, and nickel beans were 4,100 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, and 2,450 yuan/ton respectively. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 34,631 (- 793) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,172 (-1,674) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On November 20, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,330 yuan/ton and closed at 12,285 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,724 (+31,045) lots, and the open interest was 192,398 (-4,171) lots. The price basically followed the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing an oscillating downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and the continuous decline of nickel price, there was still no sign of price rebound [3]. - Spot: The price continued to decline and reached a historical low, the market sentiment was even more sluggish, and the transaction was light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The SMM data showed that the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 894.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].