农产品日报：供应压力不减，郑糖持续下探-20251121

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][5][6] Core Views - Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification, but long - term cotton prices are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [3] - Global sugar production is in a surplus pattern, and the downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited due to cost support and policy factors [4][5] - The pulp market has insufficient fundamental improvement, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,465 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,563 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1098, up 26 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,791 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1326, up 32 from the previous day [1] - India's clothing export value in October 2025 was 1.069 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.88% and a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. As of November 17, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 99.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 percentage points, 0.3 percentage points slower than the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA November report was bearish, increasing global cotton production, consumption, and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season. The Northern Hemisphere's new cotton is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure [2] - Domestically, the expected new cotton output has declined, and the seed cotton purchase price has stabilized and rebounded, but the new cotton is still expected to increase in production overall. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" was not prosperous, and now it is the off - season of the textile industry, with insufficient demand support [2] Strategy - Be neutral. Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure, but in the long - term, cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after the seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The sugar 2601 contract closed at 5366 yuan/ton yesterday, down 15 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5555 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 189, down 30 from the previous day [3] - In October 2025, China's imports of syrup and sugar premix were 115,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,300 tons. From January to October 2025, the total imports were 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 963,600 tons [3] Market Analysis - Globally, the sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the market. In the short - term, the decline space of raw sugar is limited, and in the long - term, the rebound momentum is restricted [4] - In China, the new sugar season has a strong expectation of increased production, but the price has fallen to near the sugar - making cost line, and the sugar mills have the intention to support the price. The stricter syrup control policy also supports the sugar price [4] Strategy - Be neutral. The short - term supply pressure is large, and pay attention to the support at around 5350 [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The pulp 2601 contract closed at 5298 yuan/ton yesterday, down 98 yuan/ton (- 1.82%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5510 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 + 212, up 58 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 - 208, up 63 from the previous day [5] - The import wood pulp spot market price was weakly adjusted yesterday, with some brand prices in different regions falling [5] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply was still loose [6] - In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the United States was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price [6] Strategy - Be neutral. The fundamental improvement of pulp is insufficient, and pay attention to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [6]