尿素日报：尿素10月出口120万吨-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Urea prices increased slightly after a period of slow new - order follow - up. The成交 atmosphere improved, with the improvement in the Northeast's compound fertilizer production, the increase in production in Shandong and Hubei, and the rise in melamine production. The entry of off - season storage and the news of export quotas also contributed to the better market situation. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose due to new capacity release, and gas - based maintenance is expected to start in December. The expected improvement in year - end exports is likely to support the spot market, and continuous attention should be paid to the Northeast compound fertilizer start - up rate, raw material procurement rhythm, and national off - season storage rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 20, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1665 yuan/ton (+2). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu was 1620 yuan/ton (+10). The basis in Shandong was - 25 yuan/ton (+8), in Henan was - 35 yuan/ton (- 2), and in Jiangsu was - 45 yuan/ton (+8) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of November 20, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (+10) [1] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - The export profit was 1034 yuan/ton (- 9). In October, 120 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 400 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 60 million tons, which improved the year - end export expectation [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 34.61% (+4.29%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (- 0.59) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (- 4.64), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+1.80) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [3]