甲醇日报：港口库存延续回升，传统下游淡季开工偏低-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port price of methanol remains weak, with port inventory falling from its high for the first time and flowing back to the inland. The key lies in whether the inland can absorb the impact of the port's backflow. The fundamentals are still weak, and the key is when the winter maintenance in Iran will be implemented [3]. - The inventory of inland factories has slightly decreased. The MTO of Yangmei is under maintenance, and Luxi MTO is operating at a low load. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong [4]. - In the traditional downstream, the acetic acid and formaldehyde industries are operating at low loads, while only the MTBE industry has a relatively high operating rate. The methanol price is also affected by the decline in the coking coal futures price [4]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report shows multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [8][12][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures are presented for Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import price differences (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China) [27][28][36] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [37][38][40] IV. Regional Price Differences - Multiple regional price differences are shown, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [42][49][52] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Information about the production profits of traditional downstream industries is provided, including the production profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53][60][62]