农产品日报：现货持续累库，豆粕偏弱震荡-20251121

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For the bean meal market, the current domestic supply is still relatively abundant, with continuous soybean arrivals and increasing oil - mill inventories. Although the bean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced crushing, it remains at a high level. The price was supported by the rise in US soybean prices and import costs last week. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [2] - For the corn market, new corn from the Northeast and North China is concentrated on the market. The port and production - area prices are rising due to traders' price - increasing acquisitions. In North China, supply is tight and prices are rising due to farmers' wheat - planting and concerns about corn quality. Feed enterprises are hesitant to build inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to purchase. The overall supply is slightly abundant, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling and traders' shipping [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3017 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2412 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.29%) [1] - Spot: Tianjin's bean meal spot price was 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu's was 2970 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; Guangdong's was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged; Fujian's rapeseed meal spot price was 2590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: As of last Friday, the soybean sowing in Mato Grosso was 96.36% complete, up 10.68% from the previous week. Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 471 tons, up from the previous forecast of 426 tons [1] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is loose, with continuous soybean arrivals and high oil - mill inventories. The bean meal inventory is still high, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish inventories on a rolling basis. The price was supported by US soybean prices and import costs last week [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2168 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2473 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.28%) [3] - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: Brazil's wheat exports in November 2025 are expected to reach 29 tons, a 202% increase from the same period last year. The estimated wheat exports from January to November are 177 tons, lower than the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn from the Northeast and North China is on the market. The price is rising due to traders' acquisitions. In North China, supply is tight and prices are rising due to farmers' behavior [4] - Demand: Feed enterprises are hesitant to build inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to purchase [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]