FICC日报：美国9月非农数据超预期，关注美欧11月制造业PMI初值-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic foundation still needs to be consolidated, and the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to boost market sentiment and economic expectations. The average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be around 5%. The China-US economic and trade team has reached a consensus on three aspects, and China has officially postponed tariffs. However, economic data in October showed a slowdown, and follow-up economic conditions need to be monitored [1]. - There are differences in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. Some Fed officials are cautious about a rate cut, while others support it. The US government shutdown has ended, but it has caused a loss of about $11 billion in the fourth - quarter GDP. The US manufacturing index has declined, and employment data has been affected by the shutdown [2]. - In the commodity market, focus on the certainty of non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is affected by downstream demand, the non - ferrous sector is boosted by the global easing expectation, the energy supply is moderately loose, and the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector and agricultural products' procurement plans are worthy of attention. After the short - term adjustment of precious metals, there are opportunities for bargain - hunting [3]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China: The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to boost the economy, with an estimated average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the period. The China - US economic and trade team has reached a consensus, and tariffs have been postponed. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49, a decline of 0.8 from the previous month. Exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and investment, consumption, and industrial growth slowed down. The central bank kept the LPR unchanged for six consecutive months [1]. - US: There are differences among Fed officials on a December rate cut. The government shutdown ended, causing a 1.5 - percentage - point reduction in the fourth - quarter GDP and a loss of about $11 billion. The manufacturing index declined to 48.7%, and the 9 - month non - farm employment increased by 119,000, the largest increase since April. The 10 - month employment report will be merged with the 11 - month report. Trump may announce the next Fed chairman before Christmas. There have been some trade agreements and policy adjustments [2]. Commodity Analysis - Black: Affected by downstream demand expectations, focus on the "anti - involution" situation [3]. - Non - ferrous: Long - term supply constraints remain, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation [3]. - Energy: OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the US API crude oil inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels last week, with moderately loose supply in the medium term [3]. - Chemical: The "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea, PTA and other varieties is worthy of attention [3]. - Agricultural: Pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather expectations after the China - US negotiation [3]. - Precious: After the short - term adjustment risk is cleared, there are opportunities for bargain - hunting [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [4].