华宝期货晨报煤焦-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The impact of the coal supply guarantee policy on market sentiment is gradually reflected in the futures market, with limited actual changes in supply and demand. There is seasonal pressure on demand in the later period. The price of the main coking coal contract is approaching the lower limit of the trading range (1100 - 1300), testing the support level below [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coal and coke futures prices fluctuated weakly, leading the decline in the ferrous metal sector. The futures prices were at a discount to the spot prices, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the prices of near - term contracts. The spot market was generally weak and stable, with the price of main coking coal in the main producing areas falling by 40 - 50 yuan/ton [3] Supply Side - This week, several coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi, have resumed full - scale production, and the raw coal output has increased significantly. In Zichang, Yan'an, Shaanxi, local transportation has recovered, and the coal mines involved have resumed production, boosting the overall output. The daily average output of clean coal this week was 75.8 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. In the import aspect, from November 10th to 15th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 17.45 million tons, a decrease of 2.07 million tons from the previous week, but still at a relatively high level, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3] Demand Side - The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, with the profitability rate dropping below 40%. The daily average pig iron output this week dropped to 236.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.48 million tons compared with the same period last year. During the off - season demand period, the pig iron output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the profitability of steel mills and changes in their production rhythm in the later period [3]