光大期货能化商品日报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: On Thursday, oil prices closed down. The macro - non - farm data was below expectations, pressuring the market. European ARA hub inventory data showed mixed trends. The market is fragile and sensitive to negatives, and oil prices are expected to continue oscillating [1] - Fuel Oil: Futures prices fell on Thursday. Singapore's October sales data showed growth and decline in different types. In November, sufficient inventory will suppress the low - sulfur market, while the high - sulfur market has relatively healthy downstream demand, and prices are expected to be weak [3] - Asphalt: The futures price rose on Thursday. Supply may decline slightly in the short - term due to profit reduction, and downstream demand is limited due to weather, so the price is treated with a bearish view [3] - Polyester: Futures prices of related products fell. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations. With the improvement of the PTA fundamentals, its price is expected to oscillate strongly, while the ethylene glycol has short - term supply improvement but medium - term inventory pressure, and its price will adjust widely [5] - Rubber: Futures prices fell on Thursday. The supply pressure increases while the downstream demand is weak externally, but winter storage demand supports the price, so the price is expected to oscillate [6] - Methanol: Supply has returned to a high level recently, but Iranian devices may stop in the future, and port inventory is expected to decline from December to January, so the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - Polyolefins: The market is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the low valuation may prompt downstream actions, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [6][8] - Polyvinyl Chloride: Market prices in different regions decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to the slowdown of real - estate construction, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: WTI 12 - month contract closed down $0.3 to $59.14/barrel, Brent 1 - month contract closed down $0.13 to $63.38/barrel, and SC2512 closed at 456.7 yuan/barrel, down 1.7 yuan/barrel. The non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. European ARA hub diesel inventory decreased by nearly 5%, gasoline inventory slightly decreased, naphtha inventory increased by nearly 10%, aviation fuel inventory slightly decreased, and fuel oil inventory increased [1] - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.76% to 2517 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) fell 3.5% to 3139 yuan/ton. In October 2025, Singapore's total marine fuel sales were 4.8177 million tons, with a 1.1% month - on - month increase and a 1.23% year - on - year decrease. In November, low - sulfur supply is abundant, and high - sulfur has relatively healthy demand [3] - Asphalt: On Thursday, the main contract (BU2601) rose 0.33% to 3058 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased by 18.7% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased [3] - Polyester: TA601 closed down 0.34% at 4696 yuan/ton, EG2601 closed down 2.08% at 3822 yuan/ton, and PX601 closed down 0.58% at 6830 yuan/ton. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations, and the PTA load was adjusted to 72.1% [5] - Rubber: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 190 yuan/ton to 15250 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 160 yuan/ton to 12320 yuan/ton. Rubber production is seasonally increasing, and imports are increasing year - on - year [6] - Methanol: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2000 yuan/ton. Domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and Iranian devices may stop in the future [6] - Polyolefins: On Thursday, the price of East China PP and PE had different trends, and the profit of various production methods was negative. The market is gradually shifting to strong supply and weak demand [6][8] - Polyvinyl Chloride: Market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to real - estate construction slowdown [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical products on November 20 and 19, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. The ARA hub's inventory data for diesel, gasoline, naphtha, aviation fuel, and fuel oil in the week ending November 20 was released [12][13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][16][17] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts display the basis of main contracts of different products over time, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32][37][38] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][50][53] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: Charts present the spreads between different varieties, including crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - 4.5 Production Profits: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE, PP, etc. [68]