中辉能化观点-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Rebound and short [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish continuation [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, with most products showing bearish or cautiously bearish trends due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical disturbances, and cost - related issues. Some products like PTA and natural gas show bullish or cautiously bullish trends because of improved supply - demand and seasonal demand factors respectively [1][3][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Performance: WTI decreased by 0.42%, Brent by 0.20%, and SC by 1.77%. WTI was at $59/barrel, Brent at $63.38/barrel, and SC at 455 yuan/barrel [6][7] - Basic Logic: Core driver is supply surplus and inventory accumulation; short - term driver is geopolitical disturbance [8] - Fundamentals: Saudi's September exports reached 646 million barrels/day. OPEC predicts 2025 demand increment of 130 million barrels/day and 2026 of 138 million barrels/day. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 342 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [9] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on SC in the range of [445 - 455] [10] LPG - Market Performance: On November 20, PG main contract closed at 4382 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [12] - Basic Logic: Anchored to crude oil price, with downstream开工率下降 and inventory accumulation [13] - Strategy: Lightly short. Focus on PG in the range of [4350 - 4450] [14] L - Market Performance: L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton (+30) [16] - Basic Logic: Basis repair, domestic开工率 seasonal increase, import arrival concentration, and weak downstream demand [18] - Strategy: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on L in the range of [6800 - 6950] [18] PP - Market Performance: PP2601 closed at 6429 yuan/ton (-51) [21] - Basic Logic: Following cost decline, high inventory, and insufficient demand [22] - Strategy: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on PP in the range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PVC - Market Performance: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5) [25] - Basic Logic: Weak fundamentals, high inventory, but low - valuation support [26] - Strategy: Industry hedging at high prices. Look for low - long opportunities. Focus on V in the range of [4400 - 4650] [26] PTA - Market Performance: TA05 was at 4754 yuan/ton [27] - Basic Logic: Low processing fees, increased device maintenance, and relatively good downstream demand. Cost - side PX is strong [28] - Strategy: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on TA in the range of [4670 - 4750] [29] Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: EG01 was at 4013 yuan/ton [30] - Basic Logic: Increased domestic coal - based device maintenance, new device production, and weakening downstream demand expectations. Inventory accumulation expected in November [31] - Strategy: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on EG in the range of [3790 - 3850] [32] Methanol - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned [33] - Basic Logic: High inventory suppressing prices, high domestic and overseas device开工率, and weak demand [35] - Strategy: Short positions held cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on 05 contract at low prices [3] Urea - Market Performance: UR01 was at 1652 yuan/ton [38] - Basic Logic: High supply, weakening demand, and high inventory [39] - Strategy: Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on UR in the range of [1645 - 1675] [40] Natural Gas - Market Performance: On November 20, NG main contract closed at $4.753/million British thermal units, up 3.48% [43] - Basic Logic: Seasonal demand increase, cost - profit improvement, and supply - demand situation [44] - Strategy: Price is likely to rise but upside is limited. Focus on NG in the range of [4.548 - 4.901] [45] Asphalt - Market Performance: On November 20, BU main contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 0.43% [47] - Basic Logic: Following crude oil price, supply - demand imbalance, and cost - profit situation [48] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on BU in the range of [3000 - 3100] [49] Glass - Market Performance: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16) [52] - Basic Logic: Supply decline difficult, weak domestic demand due to falling real - estate prices [53] - Strategy: Short on rebounds in the long - term. Focus on FG in the range of [1000 - 1050] [53] Soda Ash - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned [54] - Basic Logic: Decreased demand support and high - production cycle [5] - Strategy: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term [5]