华泰证券今日早参-20251121

Macro Overview - In September, the US added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 51,000, while the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% [2] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%, and weekly hours remained stable at 34.2 hours, meeting expectations [2] - The strong job growth alleviated concerns about recession or economic slowdown, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Fixed Income - October tax revenues continued to show strong performance, while narrow spending cooled due to high base effects [3] - Land transfer income was weak, and quasi-fiscal projects have not yet formed financial expenditures, leading to a negative year-on-year change in government fund expenditures [3] - The necessity for fiscal stimulus remains, with attention on the pace of budgetary fund expenditures and local fiscal space [3] Utilities and Environmental Protection - The year 2025 marks the second year of the action plan to replace hidden debts, with 4 trillion yuan of the 6 trillion yuan special debt limit issued by the end of August 2025 [4] - Since Q3, the environmental sector has seen better-than-expected national subsidy repayments for waste incineration and biomass power generation [4] - Price adjustments for sewage and waste treatment fees are expected to enhance cost recovery for related companies [4] Transportation - In October, despite being the e-commerce peak season, retail sales growth slowed due to the reduction of "old-for-new" subsidies and high base effects from the previous year [5] - The industry saw a slowdown in package volume growth, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.7% in September and 7.9% in October [5] - The "anti-involution" pricing strategy is expected to continue, with moderate growth in package volume and improved profitability for leading companies like Zhongtong Express [5] Key Companies - NetEase reported Q3 revenue of 28.4 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase, with deferred revenue exceeding expectations due to contributions from "Fantasy Westward Journey" [5] - Nvidia's Q3 results showed strong demand for AI-related products, with a significant order visibility and a rebuttal to AI bubble concerns [10] - iQIYI's Q3 revenue was 6.7 billion yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year, but management noted positive impacts from new regulations and improvements in membership services [13] E-commerce and Advertising - Kuaishou's Q3 revenue increased by 13% to 35.6 billion yuan, with a notable improvement in gross margin and adjusted net profit [14] - Youdao's Q3 revenue reached 1.63 billion yuan, growing 3.6% year-on-year, driven by accelerated growth in advertising business [6]