国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251121

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated November 21, 2025, covering gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Undergoing a volatile adjustment [2]. - Copper: Risk sentiment remains weak, and prices are oscillating [2]. - Zinc: Subject to macro - level disturbances [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory restricts price decline [2]. - Tin: Prices are falling from high levels [2]. - Aluminum: Affected by macro - level disturbances [2]. - Alumina: Trading within a range [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure to move in a volatile manner [2]. - Stainless steel: Weak market realities are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is limited [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver Gold - Fundamentals: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 932.56, with a daily decline of 0.47%. The night - session closing price was 933.90, down 0.66%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4 to 1,039.43. Comex gold inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 255,568 to 36,969,176 troy ounces [4]. - News: In September, the US non - farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, a four - year high [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [4]. Silver - Fundamentals: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 12,046, down 0.81%. The night - session closing price was 11,967, down 1.34%. SLV Silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 20 to 15,246.63. Comex silver inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 3,005,099 to 462,530,023 troy ounces [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [4]. Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 86,130, up 0.02%. The night - session closing price was 85,920, down 0.24%. Peru's copper production in September increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 240,995 tons. China's refined copper imports in October decreased by 13.62% month - on - month [8][10]. - News: The US non - farm payrolls in September and unemployment rate data had an impact on the market. The Dutch government suspended intervention in Nexperia [8]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [10]. Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17,220, down 0.17%. Shanghai Lead's futures inventory decreased by 650 tons to 30,556 tons [14]. - News: Similar to other commodities, affected by US employment data [15]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [15]. Tin - Fundamentals: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 292,030, down 0.46%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 1,500 to 282,800 [18]. - News: Affected by macro - level news such as US employment and AI - related policies [19]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Aluminum - Fundamentals: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 21,530, down 40. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise's profit was 5,489.26, up 24.58 [21]. - News: As of the week ending November 15, the number of initial jobless claims decreased, but the number of continued claims reached a new high since October 2021. The Fed's internal hawkish - dovish divergence reappeared [23]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [23]. Alumina - Fundamentals: The closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2,732, down 8 [21]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: The closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20,780, down 35 [21]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Fundamentals: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 115,380, down 270. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 895, down 3 [25]. - News: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a nickel mine area, and China suspended a non - official subsidy for imports of copper and nickel from Russia [25][26]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [29]. Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,285, down 50 [25]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [29].