光大期货软商品日报-20251121

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton closed flat on Thursday at 63.78 cents/pound, CF601 rose 0.15% to 13,465 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 8,504 lots to 544,900 lots. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 14,340 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, reducing the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in December to around 40%, pressuring the US cotton price. Zhengzhou cotton maintained a sideways trend, with the main contract's open interest decreasing for two consecutive days and the 05 contract's increasing. There is currently high supply pressure and commercial inventory is accumulating rapidly, but there is also support from cost, demand, and expectations. The cotton price is unlikely to fall below the previous low again, and the supply pressure will gradually ease over time. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton lacks a directional driver and is expected to trade sideways [1]. - Sugar: China's imports of syrup and premixed sugar powder in October were 115,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,300 tons. The spot price of new sugar in Guangxi was 5,600 - 5,660 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of old sugar from a Yunnan sugar - making group was 5,440 - 5,490 yuan/ton, and the new sugar price was 5,390 - 5,590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream price range of processed sugar was 5,750 - 5,890 yuan/ton, with some prices down 20 yuan/ton. Raw sugar trading is guided by the crushing progress in India and Thailand, and with no new news, it is expected to trade sideways. More domestic sugar mills have started crushing, resulting in sufficient supply. Although imports of syrup and premixed powder in October decreased significantly, they were still higher than market expectations. The market has significant differences in views on the future, and the price shows no sign of bottoming out and is expected to continue to decline [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the main contract basis was 1,326 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,563 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, and the national spot price was 14,791 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 47 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. Some sugar data sources had missing values [2]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On November 20, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,503, a decrease of 17 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 1,147. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions on that day were: 14,563 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 14,826 yuan/ton in Henan, 14,848 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 14,902 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.1, down 0.1 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.6, up 0.1; the short - fiber fabric comprehensive load was 51.8, unchanged; and the short - fiber fabric comprehensive inventory was 29.7, up 0.1 [2][3]. - Sugar: On November 20, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,982, a decrease of 446 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 183 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of the main contracts, but no specific analysis of the charts is provided [6][14]