有色商品日报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Without sudden events, copper prices are expected to show a high - level oscillating market with relatively low volatility. Attention should be paid to overseas financial market performance and domestic inventory performance. The global visible inventory is in an overall accumulation state, close to recent high levels. The high copper price has a restraining effect on terminal copper use, and the "inventory dam" may restrict future copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated strongly overnight, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy oscillated weakly. The fundamentals support is below the aluminum price. The environmental protection restrictions in the northern region and the high price have an obvious suppressing effect on demand. The aluminum ingot destocking is blocked, and the proportion of molten aluminum continues to decline. The upward momentum of aluminum alloy is more sufficient, and the refined - scrap price difference is expected to narrow [1][2]. - Nickel: The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more obvious. Although the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased slightly recently, the overall digestion is still difficult, which exerts great pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to whether there is support at 115,000 yuan/ton, and be vigilant against macro - disturbances, possible production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight, domestic and foreign copper prices oscillated weakly. The instability of domestic and foreign stock markets reduces the confidence in a sharp rise in copper prices. The overall global visible inventory is in an accumulation state and close to recent high levels. The high copper price restricts terminal copper use, and the inventory may restrict future copper prices. In the absence of sudden events, copper prices will show high - level oscillations with low volatility [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina oscillated strongly, with AO2601 closing at 2,737 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase, and the position decreased by 420 lots to 412,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, with AL2512 closing at 21,550 yuan/ton, a 0.12% decrease, and the position decreased by 5,342 lots to 333,000 lots. The aluminum alloy also oscillated weakly. The fundamentals and market conditions show complex trends [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.26% to 14,455 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.92% to 115,010 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased, and the price of nickel ore and nickel - iron also showed corresponding changes. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is significant, and it is necessary to pay attention to support levels and various influencing factors [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On November 20, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 86,395 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan from the previous day. The inventory of LME, COMEX, and SHFE showed different changes, with LME and COMEX inventories increasing and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreasing [1][4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,210 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The inventory of the previous period increased by 4,208 tons on a weekly basis, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 650 tons [4]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi quotation was 21,570 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the South China quotation was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The inventory of the previous period increased by 1,564 tons on a weekly basis, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 76 tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 120,200 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The inventory of LME and SHFE decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price was 22,415 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The inventory of the previous period increased by 793 tons on a weekly basis, and the social inventory decreased by 0.22 million tons on a weekly basis [7]. - Tin: The main settlement price was 293,470 yuan/ton, a 0.4% increase. The inventory of the previous period increased by 266 tons on a weekly basis [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][11]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][18]. - LME Inventory: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - Social Inventory: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [46][47].