9月美国非农数据解读：就业企稳掣肘降息

Employment Data - In September, non-farm employment increased by 119,000, but the previous values for July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000[4] - The education, healthcare, and leisure/hospitality sectors were the main contributors to job growth, with government and construction sectors seeing the largest increases of 44,000 and 33,000 jobs respectively[5] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, marking the highest level since the end of 2021, primarily due to an increase in labor force participation[12] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings in September saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while year-on-year growth remained stable at 3.8%[15] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was observed in the business services and financial sectors, at 4.8% and 4.5% respectively[15] - Wage growth has been declining since November 2024, indicating a decrease in workers' bargaining power[15] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor supply is exceeding demand, with the labor demand gap widening to -157,000 in August, indicating more unemployed individuals than job vacancies[12] - The U6 unemployment rate slightly decreased to 8%, reflecting stabilization in the marginal labor market[12] - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased to 40%, although this is a significant drop from the previous week[19] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and a downturn in the U.S. economy[22]