中辉农产品观点-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Beans meal (short - term), Rapeseed meal (short - term), Rapeseed oil (short - term), Cotton (medium - to - long - term) [1] - Bearish: Palm oil, Red dates, Live pigs (near - term) [1] - Neutral: Soybean oil, Cotton (short - term) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Beans meal: Short - term consolidation, look for short - term long opportunities after adjustment, focus on Brazilian soybean planting weather [1][3] - Rapeseed meal: Short - term stop - falling and consolidation, with a tendency to rebound, pay attention to the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][6] - Palm oil: Weak consolidation, with inventory accumulation expected in November, hold off on going long for now [1][8] - Soybean oil: Short - term oscillation, limited adjustment space, look for long opportunities after adjustment [1] - Rapeseed oil: Short - term bullish, fundamental is strong, be cautious about shorting [1] - Cotton: Cautiously bullish, short - term weak oscillation, consider range trading; medium - to - long - term, look for low - buying opportunities [1][12] - Red dates: Rebound under pressure, maintain a bearish attitude in the long - run, short - term wait - and - see [1][14] - Live pigs: Oscillate weakly in the near - term, consider rolling short - selling and reverse arbitrage; may enter a new cycle after H2 2026 [1][17] 3. Summaries by Variety Beans meal - Market situation: Futures price is 3017 yuan/ton, down 0.17%; national average spot price is 3079.71 yuan/ton, down 0.39% [2] - Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 992.6 million tons, down 40.8 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 747.71 million tons, down 1.87%; bean meal inventory is 99.29 million tons, down 0.57% [3] - Analysis: Brazilian rainfall is expected to be slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days. Spot oil mills' sales pressure is down. US - China soybean import tariff issue remains unresolved. Look for short - term long opportunities after adjustment [1][3] Rapeseed meal - Market situation: Futures price is 2412 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; national average spot price is 2500.53 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Inventory: As of November 14, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 0 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory is 0.2 million tons, down 0.3 million tons week - on - week [6] - Analysis: Canada can't cancel tariffs on China, new Australian rapeseed will arrive at the port on November 22, bearish for market sentiment. But the contract rebounded after short - sellers took profits. It may stop falling and rebound [1][6] Palm oil - Market situation: Futures price is 8646 yuan/ton, down 2.33%; national average price is 8755 yuan/ton, down 1.16% [7] - Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, national commercial inventory is 65.32 million tons, up 9.36% week - on - week [8] - Analysis: Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 20 days of November weakened, price fell. Inventory accumulation is expected in November, hold off on going long [1][8] Cotton - Market situation: Futures price of main contract (CF2601) is 13465 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; US cotton main contract is 63.78 cents/pound, down 0.15% [9] - Inventory: National commercial inventory is 328.24 million tons, up 43 million tons; Xinjiang commercial inventory is 270.51 million tons, up 39 million tons [9] - Analysis: USDA's negative data increased the global stock - to - use ratio, pressuring US cotton. Domestic supply is high, but new cotton sales are fast. Short - term range trading, medium - to - long - term low - buying [1][12] Red dates - Market situation: Futures price of main contract (CJ2601) is 9300 yuan/ton, up 0.11% [13] - Inventory: 36 sample enterprises' inventory is 9840 tons, up 299 tons week - on - week [13][14] - Analysis: New jujube production is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 tons, supply is excessive. Maintain a bearish attitude, short - term wait - and - see [1][14] Live pigs - Market situation: Futures price of main contract (lh2601) is 11440 yuan/ton, down 1.04%; national average spot price is 11810 yuan/ton, up 0.60% [15] - Inventory: National sample enterprise pig inventory is 3844.62 million heads, up 0.15%; slaughter volume is 11.9653 million heads, up 11.85% [15] - Analysis: Near - term supply is loose, Q4 will see cost - based competition. Long - term, a new cycle may start after H2 2026 [1][17]