华宝期货晨报：铁矿石：价格高位震荡，建议区间操作-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The price of iron ore is in high - level oscillation, and range operation is recommended. Short - term macro - driving is lacking. Iron ore supply peaks have passed, and the supply and arrival volume are expected to decline. The demand will show a downward trend, and the inventory will tend to accumulate. It will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Logic - Yesterday, iron ore maintained a high - level narrow - range oscillation. The better - than - expected finished product data and real - estate "interest subsidy" briefly stimulated the market. The macro - environment is still weak, terminal demand has entered the off - season, domestic iron ore demand has seasonally declined, and the basis has significantly shrunk recently. Iron ore has no independent strengthening basis [3] Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has been increasing continuously on a week - on - week basis, with significant recoveries in Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has dropped significantly on a week - on - week basis. According to seasonal patterns and the shipping targets of major mines this year, the peak of foreign ore supply may have passed, and the subsequent supply pressure may decline on a week - on - week basis [3] Demand - Domestic demand has declined slightly on a week - on - week basis. The increase in the blast furnace utilization rate of some steel mills in Hebei has offset the reduction in production due to the annual maintenance of some steel mills in Henan, Xinjiang, Shanxi and other regions. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability have been continuously declining due to weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. Coupled with steel mills gradually entering the seasonal restocking cycle, domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient [4] Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel mill end remains at a low level, and the subsequent restocking by steel mills is still one of the core factors supporting the price. The port inventory has ended the continuous accumulation trend for 7 weeks, mainly because the arrival volume has declined on a week - on - week basis, the berthing volume has increased, and the port clearance volume has continued to rise [4] Price - The price operates within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore is in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [5] Strategy - Conduct range operation and sell call options [5]