美国9月非农远超预期，12月降息前景不明

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The US September non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear. The employment market has not significantly deteriorated, and the urgency for a rate cut is not strong. The December interest rate meeting is more likely to result in no rate cut and a dovish stance on the future rate - cut path [3][4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US September Non - farm Payrolls and Interest Rate Outlook - Employment Data: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected, and the labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.4%. Hourly wage growth was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, with the month - on - month rate down from the previous value [3][10] - Industry Breakdown: New jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (59,000), leisure and hospitality (47,000), construction (19,000), and retail (14,000). Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, manufacturing, and the federal government continued to lay off workers [3] - Interest Rate Meeting Outlook: As the last employment report before the December interest rate meeting, the data's lag reduces its reference value. Market expectations for a rate cut have slightly increased [4][37] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - With a cumulative 50bp rate cut in 2025 and no further acceleration of the economic slowdown, most Fed officials prefer to pause the rate - cut rhythm. Precious metals will continue to consolidate, US Treasury yields will oscillate at recent highs, the US dollar index will oscillate with a slight upward bias, and high - valuation pressure on US stocks will be prominent, with short - term volatility remaining high [5][42]