沥青，偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of weak supply and demand, the asphalt futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future. The supply side is passively shrinking due to profit decline, the demand side is restricted by funds and weather factors, showing a regional differentiation of "weak in the north and strong in the south" with insufficient overall recovery momentum. Although the destocking of asphalt social inventory has relieved market pressure, the marginal increase in refinery inventory also indicates increasing sales pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Profit Affects Supply - Recently, the asphalt futures 2601 contract dropped to around 3,000 yuan/ton. The current fundamentals continue the situation of weak supply and demand, with light trading in the spot market and a continuous weakening of the basis between futures and spot, highlighting the pattern of a lackluster peak season [2]. - Since the fourth quarter, affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, asphalt processing profits have been in a loss state. For example, Shandong local refineries once suffered losses of more than 600 yuan/ton in asphalt processing. Although the processing profits have recently recovered, they are still far below normal levels. As a result, refineries' production enthusiasm has been dampened, and they have actively reduced asphalt output through maintenance or production conversion. As of the week of November 12, the average theoretical asphalt processing profit in China was -593.2 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 58.8 yuan/ton; the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 30.8%, a weekly decrease of 1.1 percentage points; and the weekly asphalt output was 514,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.4% [2]. - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries is at a near five-year high, and asphalt production is at a near five-year medium-high level. Against the backdrop of still high supply pressure, the spot price of asphalt has continued to decline since November. As of November 12, the average spot price of asphalt was 3,211 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 120 yuan/ton, or a decline of 3.6%. The supply in Shandong has increased significantly, refineries' enthusiasm for releasing contracts has risen, and considering the decrease in downstream consumption during the off-season, prices are under pressure [2]. Terminal Recovery is Weak - The downstream demand for asphalt is mainly for road infrastructure, accounting for up to 70%. Its prosperity is closely related to the issuance progress of local government special bonds and the availability of project funds. Although 2025 is the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and some northern projects have the expectation of rushing to complete work, the overall infrastructure investment growth rate has fallen short of expectations, and the expected increase in demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season did not occur. Poor fund availability has led to slow project progress, resulting in limited actual asphalt physical work volume [3]. - Judging from the operating rate data, the operating rates of major downstream industries such as heavy-traffic asphalt and modified asphalt are generally lower than historical levels, reflecting weak terminal demand recovery. In the second half of November, a new round of cold weather occurred in some northern regions, and market rigid demand gradually slowed down, with road construction basically at a standstill. In contrast, due to relatively favorable weather conditions in the southern region, some infrastructure projects still have the need to rush to complete work, which is currently one of the few demand bright spots. However, the southern market has a low acceptance of high-priced newly produced asphalt and prefers to purchase low-priced social inventory resources. As of the end of the first ten days of November, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 362,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 18.7% [3]. De-stocking Pattern Continues - Currently, the inventory of domestic asphalt continues to decline. According to data from Longzhong Information, as of the week of November 17, the social inventory of asphalt dropped to 1.128 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.5%. Among them, the social inventory in Shandong has decreased significantly. Some projects in Shandong are in the final stage, and industry players have mostly sold off their inventory, driving a significant reduction in social inventory. Although the northern terminals have entered the shutdown stage, the enthusiasm of traders for stockpiling is low, and the wait-and-see atmosphere has gradually become stronger. The refinery inventory rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years, and it still has a supporting effect on prices. With the rapid shrinkage of northern demand, if the southern rush-to-complete work demand cannot effectively take over, the refinery inventory pressure will gradually emerge in the later part of the fourth quarter [3].