中信期货晨报：风险偏好持续回落，股指商品多数回调-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The overall allocation idea for the fourth quarter remains largely unchanged, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. Investors are advised to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stocks, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase allocations appropriately if there is a certain degree of correction in the fourth quarter [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The core drivers of major assets this week are the "anticipatory overshoot" after the restart of the US government and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. After the release of the "delayed" US September non - farm payroll data, both non - farm employment and the unemployment rate exceeded expectations, but the market seemed to focus on the weaker unemployment data, causing US stocks to open high and close low with a significant decline [8]. - Domestic Macro: In October, economic data continued the weak and stable trend, and the boost of incremental policies to the fundamentals was not yet evident. Affected by factors such as the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak fund arrival, rhythmic decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow slightly but remained resilient. The 500 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments and the 500 billion yuan local government's unused quota withdrawn in October are expected to take effect as early as the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year in October, and the financial data generally met expectations [8]. 2. Asset Performance 2.1 Financial Assets - Stock Index Futures: Include CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures. They showed varying degrees of decline on a daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly basis, but had significant increases this year, with increases ranging from 12.12% to 24.19% [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures also had different performance trends. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures had a 0.00% daily change, and a - 0.50% change this year [3]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index, euro - US dollar, US dollar - yen, and US dollar central parity rate all had their own change rates, with the US dollar - yen having a 0.7% increase this year [3]. - Interest Rates: Various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, and 10Y US treasury bond yield had corresponding changes, for example, the 10Y US treasury bond yield decreased by about 45 bp this year [3]. 2.2 Industry Indexes - Domestic Industries: Industries such as construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals showed different degrees of increase, while industries like food and beverage, and computers had varying degrees of decline. For example, the non - ferrous metals industry had a 33.74% increase this year, while the food and beverage industry had a - 4.32% change [4]. 2.3 Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil, ICE Brent crude oil, and other energy commodities had different performance. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil had an 18.24% decline this year, while NYMEX natural gas had a 28.59% increase [4]. - Precious Metals: COMEX gold and COMEX silver both had significant increases this year, with increases of 54.46% and 71.92% respectively [4]. - Non - ferrous Metals: LME copper and LME aluminum also showed different trends, with LME copper having a 21.69% increase this year [4]. 2.4 Domestic Commodities - Shipping: The container shipping to Europe route had a - 27.74% change this year [5]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver in the domestic market also had different performance, with silver having a 61.31% increase this year [5]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals had their own trends, for example, copper had a 16.75% increase this year [5]. 3. Sector and Variety Analysis 3.1 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: The market is in a state of "trading time for space" with a dumbbell - style allocation transition. Facing the problem of insufficient incremental funds, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [9]. - Stock Index Options: The strategy is mainly based on covered call defense. Due to the possible insufficient liquidity in the options market, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The impact of the capital market may be limited. Affected by factors such as unexpected incremental policies, unexpected stock market rises, and unexpected monetary policies, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold/Silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Affected by factors such as the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.3 Shipping Sector - Container Shipping to Europe Route: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, the loading is under pressure and lacks upward momentum. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel and Ore: The cost performance is differentiated, the upward momentum of the futures market is weak, the spot price is firm, and the trading volume is marginally weakening. Pay attention to factors such as the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron ore production, and the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - Coke: The profit has been repaired, and the spot price is temporarily stable. Affected by factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - Copper: After the restart of the US government, the copper price is consolidating at a high level. Affected by factors such as supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, and unexpected Fed policies, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - Aluminum: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price has corrected. Affected by factors such as macro - risks, supply disruptions, and unexpected demand, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [9]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12]. - LPG: The refinery's external supply volume has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure. Affected by cost - related factors such as crude oil and overseas propane, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12]. 3.7 Agricultural Sector - Oils and Fats: The strength of US soybean oil has boosted the domestic soybean and palm oil markets. Affected by factors such as US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [12]. - Protein Meal: The expectation of state reserves release is strong, and the futures market has reduced positions and declined. Affected by factors such as weather, domestic demand, and trade frictions, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12].