黑色金属数据日报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Unilateral observation; opportunistic participation in spot-futures positive arbitrage for hot-rolled coils, or using options strategies to assist spot sales [7] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use put spreads to protect spot exposure [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilateral trading with a short-term focus; medium- and long-term investors should wait and see, and previously recommended hedging short positions should be closed [7] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Market sentiment is cooling, but weekly data may continue to improve. The static valuation of steel futures prices is not high, but there is a lack of upward momentum, and the concern of steel mill production cuts remains. Steel production is expected to gradually decline [2] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the supply surplus pressure persists in the medium term, despite stronger cost support [2][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot market sentiment is weakening, and the expectation of coke price cuts is increasing. The decline in coking coal and coke prices may be nearing an end, but the driving force for a rebound may need to wait until mid - December [5] - Iron Ore: The fundamentals are weak, with expected inventory accumulation in the medium term. However, due to strong macro - sentiment, it is difficult to break through the price range, and the operation is biased towards shorting on rallies [6] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Futures Price Information - On November 20th, the closing prices and price changes of far - month contracts (RB2605, HC2605, etc.) and near - month contracts (RB2601, HC2601, etc.) in the black metal futures market are provided, including price changes and percentage changes [1] 3.2 Spread and Profit Information - On November 20th, information such as thread surface profit, coil - thread spread, thread - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and coking surface profit is provided, along with their price changes [1] 3.3 Spot Price Information - On November 20th, spot prices of various products such as Tianjin thread, Guangzhou thread, Tangshan billet, Shanghai hot - rolled coil, and coking coal at different ports are provided, along with their price changes [1] 3.4 Basis Information - On November 20th, basis data for HC, RB, J, and other main contracts are provided, along with their price changes [1]